Next 10x Track! The New King of Weight Loss Drugs: Novartis JH389! Low cost, 80% penetration rate

Mino 4 consecutive boards explode! Who will become the leading stock behind the surge? [Taoguba]
The logic behind its explosion is twofold:
First, value change: Disrupting the trillion-dollar traditional weight loss drug market: The value reassessment of the weight loss probiotic sector.
Second, name metaphysics: From the U.S. to China, expected in May!
Many people might say, what’s the point in talking about this when it’s so high? Do you know how many billions the global weight loss drug leader is worth?

Eli Lilly has an $830 billion market cap, which is over 5 trillion! You heard that right! Novo Nordisk is worth $160 billion! That also equals 1 trillion! What does this indicate?

It indicates: The essential demand + huge profits + large market space in the weight loss market!
China hasn’t had a piece of the pie in the past five years, but in the next five years, it might grab a significant share because the king of competition has arrived! So we need to think about why this is possible? Where is the value? Additionally, consider the ongoing Middle East conflicts: After the surge in chemical, electric, and technological sectors, could it be possible for pharmaceuticals to strengthen in a defensive manner, unaffected? Isn’t it possible that this could rise?

1. Disrupting the weight loss drug market with Minohua JH389 - Core logic and product positioning

1. Why did Minohua explode?
   The market attention on Minohua exploded, centered on its “innovation” and “certainty” combination:
   Technical innovation: JH389 is the world’s first oral GLP-1 gut-targeting probiotic entering the commercialization preparation stage. It is not just a simple probiotic; it genetically modifies Bacillus subtilis to secrete GLP-1 analogs in situ in the gut. This addresses the pain point of traditional GLP-1 drugs needing injection and the peptide being easily broken down by stomach acid when taken orally.
   Commercialization certainty: Unlike the lengthy Phase III clinical trials for innovative drugs, JH389 is currently following the European supplement (EFSA) registration and domestic food/supplement path. According to the data, it is expected to be approved for market launch in 2026, with a clear and verifiable timeline.
   Closed industrial chain: Minohua has integrated capabilities from “intermediates - raw materials - formulations - CDMO,” fully controlling everything from strain research and development to production, with significant cost advantages and the ability to quickly go global using existing CDMO customers (like Merck).

2. Why have weight loss probiotics suddenly become popular?
   Reasons for popularity: GLP-1 awareness: Drugs like semaglutide have educated the market that “GLP-1 = weight loss,” but high prices and side effects have deterred many individuals. Upgraded health awareness: Consumers have shifted from “rapid weight loss” to “long-term health management,” and probiotics possess dual attributes of “weight loss + gut regulation,” aligning with the natural and safe trend. Policy and access: Compared to drugs, the approval cycle for supplements/functional foods is shorter, allowing for faster market entry.
   Advantages: High safety: Clinical data shows no adverse reactions, no gastrointestinal side effects like nausea and vomiting. High convenience: Oral capsules, no need for refrigeration, no injections, good privacy. Low cost: Expected monthly costs are less than 1/5 of injectable drugs.
   Disadvantages/risks: Weight loss efficiency: 3.20% weight loss in 8 weeks, far lower than injectable GLP-1 (8-15% weight loss in 12-24 weeks). Suitable for mild to moderate obesity, not for severe obesity. Regulatory attributes: Currently filed as a supplement/food, cannot claim therapeutic effects, and market education costs still exist. Long-term data: Currently only a small sample of 28 people and 8-week data; long-term effectiveness and strain stability require large-scale validation.

3. Market launch timeline and target population

Launch timeline: Europe: Expected to submit registration in Q2 2026, approval in Q3, and formal market launch in Q4. China: Expected to complete registration in Q1 2026, with a potential market launch through food/supplement channels in Q2. The U.S.: Currently applying for GRAS certification.
Target population: Mild to moderate obesity: BMI <28, seeking gentle weight loss. Injection fear/medication rejection: Individuals reluctant to inject or concerned about prescription drug side effects.
Weight maintenance population: Individuals transitioning off GLP-1 drugs after weight loss to prevent rebound.

2. Thoughts on disrupting the trillion-dollar traditional weight loss drug market - Drugs vs Supplements

1. Comparison with traditional GLP-1 drugs (Eli Lilly/Novo Nordisk)

2. Supplements vs Drugs: Approval and regulatory differences

Approval difficulty and cycle for drugs (GLP-1): Requires Phase I/II/III clinical trials (thousands of cases, several years), strict FDA/NMPA approval, cycle of 5-10 years, costs in billions.
Supplements (JH389): Small-scale clinical validation (dozens to hundreds of cases), EFSA/NMPA registration system, cycle of 3-12 months, costs in millions, extremely high approval efficiency. Focused on safety, functionality claims are restricted, quick approval/registration, mainly sold through pharmacies, e-commerce, and supermarkets. JH389 chose this path to “trade time for space” and quickly capture the non-drug weight loss market.
Market positioning and barriers for drugs: Strong efficacy, high barriers, strong pricing power, but significant side effects, high usage thresholds, low penetration (only covering severe obesity).
Supplements: High safety, low usage thresholds, high penetration, covering a vast number of mild to moderate individuals; once first-mover advantage is established, barriers become extremely strong.
3. Disruption logic: Structural replacement rather than comprehensive replacement
Not replacing: Individuals needing strong treatment for severe obesity (BMI >35), diabetes, etc., will still rely on GLP-1 drugs.
Strong replacement: A vast population of mild to moderate obesity, weight maintenance, and those rejecting medication (accounting for over 70% of the weight loss population) will shift from GLP-1 to weight loss probiotics, achieving market reconstruction from “treatment” to “health management.” JH389 cannot replace the medication needs of severe obesity patients, but it can capture the large long-tail population that “does not meet medication standards” or “is afraid to use medication.”
Ecological reconstruction: Transforming weight loss from a “medical behavior” into a “consumer behavior,” expanding the market ceiling from “number of patients” to “number of beauty/health-conscious individuals.”

Core disruption points: Fast approval, low costs, high safety, high penetration, entering the trillion-dollar pharmaceutical market as a supplement, opening up downward space.

3. Demand and future of the weight loss market - Global and China estimates

1. Current market status (2024-2025)
   Global obesity rate: The proportion of overweight/obese individuals globally has exceeded 30%, with the U.S. adult obesity rate exceeding 40%.
   Drug penetration rate: The current global penetration rate of weight loss drugs is still low (<5%), mainly limited by price, side effects, and prescription thresholds.
   Non-drug market: The global non-drug weight loss market is expected to reach approximately $4.5 billion by 2025, with probiotics accounting for less than 5%, on the verge of explosion.
2. Market space estimation: Explosive forecast for 2025-2028

3. Driving factors for the explosive growth of the Chinese market
   Disease awareness: The National Health Commission and others clearly define obesity as a disease, but health insurance coverage is limited, promoting the self-funded health management market.
   Policy support: The “Healthy China 2030” plan encourages the development of the health industry, with increasingly standardized regulation of functional foods benefiting leading companies.
   Awareness enhancement: From “thin is beautiful” to “metabolic health,” consumers are more willing to pay for long-term, safe weight management solutions.
   Product diversification: From single dieting to meal replacements, supplements, and probiotics, the variety of choices has increased.

4. Why are weight loss probiotics more popular in China/global?

1. Core advantage analysis
   Easy approval (low access barriers): Compared to innovative drugs, probiotics can be registered as food ingredients or supplements, shortening the cycle by 3-5 years, with less financial pressure and strong willingness from companies.
   Low side effects (cultural fit): East Asian populations have deeper concerns about “all drugs have side effects,” leaning towards “food and medicine share the same source” or natural regulation. The gut health attributes of probiotics align well with traditional Chinese medicine’s concept of “regulating the spleen and stomach.”
   Low market share (large growth space): The current share of <1% indicates significant incremental space. As benchmark products like JH389 deliver data, the industry will shift from “concept speculation” to “data-driven” stages. By 2026, global market share is expected to be <5%, China <10%, with a 10-fold increase in penetration space.
2. Future market share prediction
   2025: Market cultivation period, share <5%.
   2026-2027: Product landing period (Minohua, Beijia, etc. will be listed), share quickly rising to 10-15%.
   2028 and beyond: Maturity period, expected to occupy 40% of the non-drug weight loss market, becoming one of the “standard” products for weight management.
   Value growth: As strains become patented and functions become specific (e.g., targeting fat loss, targeting blood sugar control), product premium capabilities will improve, and industry value will shift from “raw material sales” to “brand + service.”

5. Analysis of related beneficiary companies

Summary: The launch of JH389 signifies that the weight loss sector is extending from “chemical drugs/biopharmaceuticals” to “synthetic biology/microecology.” It will not completely replace the positions of Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk but will open up a new market worth hundreds of billions in “light medical/heavy consumption.”
After reading this, think about whether this can explode in the future, but what will you do about the current high-risk situation? Where is the future value? Who is the thought behind the surge? And will it truly explode in the future? Reflecting on the product and value. Do you understand? It’s not recommended because I am also researching and trying to figure out what to do! I don’t suggest chasing it, don’t say I told you to buy in, don’t look if you just want to criticize!
If you don’t understand: Like + Share + Comment! The next 10x track! The new king of weight loss drugs: Minohua JH389! 80% lower costs, 10x growth in penetration in 3 years!

The above is just my personal trading reflection and summary. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution! Plans are always slower than changes; everything must be combined with market movements. The content of the article reflects my personal thoughts and records, serving only as a personal sharing record, not constituting any investment advice, and is for reference only. Trade based on this, and you bear the profits and losses!
(Exploring and organizing information is not easy; your: Like + Share + Comment is our motivation, thank you!)

Overall situation: The market saw another decline of 90 billion today, but the trend showed an unexpectedly strong improvement. Despite a 2% drop in the U.S. stocks yesterday, only 200 stocks rose at the opening, yet continued to shrink and reversed to close up, which can only be described as an impressive feat! Overall, the trading volume was 1.85 trillion, with 4156 stocks rising and only 957 falling; overall, as we expected, 3840 provided support, with today’s lowest at 3852. The future expectation is also a sustained fluctuation, with the core focus on the thoughts regarding the position on the 1st next week! At the same time, observing the breakthrough of the 3937 resistance, an overall breakthrough is the key to starting to strengthen! After that, the focus will be on around 4055 resistance!
Emotional aspect: Emotional recovery, with 78 stocks hitting the limit up, 2 stocks hitting the limit down, limit up rate at 83%, and a total of 10 stocks with consecutive limits, with a height of 7 consecutive limits.
Sector wise: The current core main line: electricity, while the strongest sectors are: electricity + pharmaceuticals + chemicals! Electricity is the strongest main line, and today, as expected, chemicals also strengthened. Additionally, lithium batteries are starting to strengthen, but next week there may be differences because large 4 consecutive limits are hard to sustain.!! Assisting sectors: lithium batteries + optical communication + beverages + chips!
Electricity: The leader Guangxi continues with a limit up, while the old leader Huadian not collapsing is the best choice, overall considering a 200% thought. And Yunnan Power is holding up, observing whether it will continue to push forward is key.
Pharmaceuticals: The leader Minohua has 5 boards in 6 days, and the overall strengthening is beyond expectations with 4 consecutive boards, but whether it will continue next week is uncertain; further observation is needed. At present, it may be more suitable to wait for clearer explosive value!
Chemicals: The leader Sulai has 1 board, while the actual stronger ones should be in Jinzheng and Baichuan’s explosions, which are worth observing! Overall, looking at the sustainability in the future!
Success has no shortcuts; only self-discipline and persistence! Wishing you, who are always striving, more luck as you work harder!

Today’s Highlights:

1. Exclusive| Two container ships under COSCO Shipping have turned back towards the Persian Gulf and have not yet passed through the Strait of Hormuz.
2. ICBC: The net profit for the whole year of 2025 is expected to be 368.56 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.7% (not holding up, overall decreased!).
3. JPMorgan: The global oil system is transitioning from “supply shock to inventory depletion”. Most regions will face pressure in April, and due to the U.S.-Iran war causing interruptions in oil transport through the Strait of Hormuz, the global oil system is shifting from “supply shock to inventory depletion” issues. JPMorgan anticipates that the oil crisis will sequentially impact regions worldwide, starting from Asia, through Africa, to Europe, eventually affecting the U.S., with most regions under pressure in April.
4. Get in early! U.S. asset management company applies to launch a 2x long ETF for SpaceX and Anthropic.
5. Okex: The net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company in the first quarter is expected to increase by 2249.75% - 2770.38% year-on-year (incredible! May reach 900 million for the whole year, with a PE of only 13 times!).

Tracking commodity themes

1. Live pigs 10.04 (-0.49%, pig cost 12, Muyuan 11.6 yuan, feed over 50%, labor 10-15%).
2. Battery lithium carbonate 160,000 (4.05%, salt lake cost 30-40,000, mica 60-90,000, lithium concentrate 60-80,000).
3. Praseodymium neodymium oxide 7.125 million (0%), neodymium iron boron N35: 1.695 million (0%) (light cost 350,000-400,000. MP790,000, Australia 450-500,000. Mining: 8,000–10,000 yuan/ton, medium and heavy rare earth 1.3-1.5 million yuan/ton).
   Like first, then look, earning millions a month! Thank you all for your support!