The Archaeopteryx is still watching, and the 300-yuan Taizhou bird is about to increase in price first.

Pull one thread and the whole body moves.

Text | Anran

Source | SourceSight (ID: gh_95838c8306c1)

Cover Source | Visual China

The ongoing conflict between the U.S. and Israel has escalated, but the one taking the hit is the apparel industry.

Since March, influenced by the situation in the Middle East, international crude oil prices have fluctuated. The prices of textile raw materials such as PTA (purified terephthalic acid), polyester (polyester fiber), and nylon have also experienced volatility. For example, the price of polyester DTY (Drawn Textured Yarn) surged over 30% to 11,350 yuan/ton on March 10, with an increase of over 3,500 yuan in less than three months.

In recent years, outdoor clothing, such as jackets and sun protection clothing, has seen an increased share of polyester and nylon fabrics, leading to a larger cost impact on related companies.

The cradle of “Taizhou Bird,” Sanmen County, gathers hundreds of jacket manufacturers, making it a well-known production base for jackets in China. LanTu Outdoor, one of the “three major manufacturers in Sanmen County” alongside Senbo and Dixiang, revealed to SourceSight that “currently some fabric manufacturers have reacted, with a price increase of about 10%.”

However, there is a certain lag in the transfer of costs from the upstream to the downstream, and the much-discussed situation of “even polyester fibers becoming unaffordable” may not come immediately.

Cheng Weixiong, founder of the Liangxi brand, stated on social media that since the spring and summer products for the industry have mostly completed stock preparation, the short-term impact on market prices is limited; if the Middle East conflict continues and navigation through the Strait of Hormuz is not restored, high crude oil prices will fully transmit price increases for chemical fiber raw materials to autumn and winter ready-to-wear, with expected terminal price increases of 5%-15%.

LanTu Outdoor also stated that the current price increases from suppliers are still within a controllable range, so “we have not yet proposed price increases to downstream buyers”; however, the international situation is unpredictable, and if costs continue to rise, it cannot be ensured whether price increase measures will be taken in the future.

Other leading companies, such as Anta, Li Ning, Kailas, and Toread, benefit from the advantages of large-scale orders, possessing greater bargaining power and generally locking in raw material costs through long-term fabric contracts and futures hedging, resulting in limited short-term impact. However, in the long term, all companies will find it difficult to emerge unscathed from “black swan” events in the industry.

Upstream plays a game of face-changing.

The fire is stoked.

Since late February, influenced by the outbreak of the U.S.-Israel war, the near closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and production cuts announced by multiple Middle Eastern countries, crude oil prices have skyrocketed. WTI crude oil futures experienced a violent surge, temporarily approaching $120 per barrel, and have since continued to fluctuate.

On March 18, WTI crude oil futures closed at $99.05 per barrel, still significantly higher than the main range of $50-60 per barrel at the beginning of the year; Brent crude oil futures closed at $105.49 per barrel, continuing to fluctuate upward on the morning of the 19th.

Since the escalation of geopolitical conflicts on February 28, leading to the temporary blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, the prices of mainstream plastic raw materials such as ABS and PC have generally increased by over 40% in just one week, with prices changing almost every second.

As is well known, the vast majority of apparel production relies on chemical fiber raw materials. Driven by the fierce price surge of petrochemical materials, the prices of intermediates such as polyester fibers and nylon are also under severe fluctuation.

Screenshot source: Global Textile Network

According to monitoring data from Global Textile Network, on March 10, the price increases for polyester staple fiber, polyester POY (Partially Oriented Yarn), polyester FDY (Fully Drawn Yarn), and polyester DTY were 25.29%, 24.37%, 26.39%, and 30.65%, respectively, with the largest increase being polyester DTY, which saw a maximum increase of over 3,500 yuan per ton in less than three months.

On March 18, polyester POY suddenly surged by 67.56%, with prices soaring to 15,625 yuan per ton, with a maximum increase of over 9,000 yuan per ton within the month.

The price volatility of these fabric materials further drives up the prices of apparel fabrics, causing the clothing industry to enter a turbulent period.

Since late February, multiple fabric companies have announced price increases and adjustments.

On March 4, Huafeng Super Fiber announced a price increase notice for super fiber base cloth, deciding to uniformly raise prices by 1-4 yuan per meter starting March 9, 2026, with subsequent prices to be adjusted in line with international crude oil and raw material prices.

Screenshot source from Huafeng Super Fiber announcement

On March 10, Huafeng Super Fiber issued a second wave of price increase letters, stating that after careful study, it was decided to implement the second wave of price increases for super fiber base cloth products starting March 16, 2026, with all base cloth products uniformly increasing by an additional 2-6 yuan per meter on top of the March 9 price increase.

Additionally, Bingshan Textile, Shichuang Longfa Textile, Yuanlong Textile, Dahui Knitting, and Guangmian Textile have also successively released price increase notifications.

The complaints and observations from the mid-to-low end

The increase in fabric prices affects different enterprises to varying degrees.

Many small and micro enterprises are significantly impacted due to their smaller production scales and insufficient initial stock. As their inventory is consumed, some of these enterprises are starting to face the risk of losses from buying high and selling low on certain orders.

Screenshot source from Xiaohongshu

This uncertainty, akin to an agrarian society “relying on the heavens for food,” has led many merchants to change their transaction pace. Some merchants have decided to raise prices despite the risk of order cancellations, while others have suspended order acceptance or delayed shipments, hoping to minimize losses.

According to the Daily Economic News, a merchant specializing in functional fabrics such as sun protection clothing and jackets decided to suspend order acceptance after manufacturers issued two or three rounds of price increase notifications. “The price increase is too crazy now; the orders we are accepting are losing money. Some old customers and domestic sales are manageable, but the export prices ‘cannot keep up’; in this unstable situation, it’s hard to accept orders.”

Some merchants have also proactively suspended shipments. With the current price trends unclear, “goods produced in the morning may have their prices change by the afternoon; even if we have goods, we are hesitant to ship.”

In contrast to the complaints from small micro merchants, larger enterprises, either due to more fabric and capital reserves or in order to stabilize major clients and maintain corporate reputation, still choose to maintain original prices and deliver on schedule.

For example, Zhejiang LanTu Outdoor Products Co., Ltd., which primarily produces jackets in Sanmen County, has nearly 1,600 employees and owns over 56,000 square meters of factory space, with an annual production of over 2.6 million jackets.

Screenshot source from LanTu Supply Chain mini program

A sales manager from LanTu Outdoor told SourceSight that their fabric supply manufacturers have already adjusted prices, with increases currently within 10%, which is still considered manageable for the company. Therefore, although the company has not stockpiled excessive fabric, it has not yet raised prices for products such as jackets to maintain order stability.

However, this undoubtedly adds a significant burden to the company, squeezing profit margins further. The management personnel stated that it is still difficult to judge the international situation, and the company is currently in a “watch and see” state, with whether to adjust product prices in the future remaining uncertain.

Leading companies in the industry, backed by mature supply chains, strong financial strength, and comprehensive risk hedging mechanisms, are less impacted by the recent surge in fabric costs.

For instance, companies like Anta and Li Ning, relying on brand premium and scale effects, possess stronger bargaining power. They establish long-term cooperative relationships with upstream raw material suppliers, locking in prices in advance and strategically hoarding to absorb costs, thereby prioritizing stable supply while avoiding the “losing money upon order acceptance” dilemma faced by smaller manufacturers.

Some enterprises use financial instruments such as futures and forward contracts for hedging, keeping raw material volatility risks within a controllable range; at the same time, they can also use various means such as multi-brand and multi-category layouts to digest upstream price increases and maintain stable gross margins.

Recently, China News Service verified with Arc’teryx’s official customer service regarding the increase in upstream raw material prices, and the brand stated that there are currently no related price increase notifications, advising to follow official information in the future.

Customer service representatives from brands like Kailas and Camel also told SourceSight that they have not received any notifications regarding price increases. However, some operational staff noted that “these price fluctuations are generally not announced in advance,” and based on past practices, brands may suddenly increase retail prices directly.

Reducing dependence and upgrading together

Cheng Weixiong predicts that the current stage of industry impact presents a characteristic of “mild spring, stable summer, and rising autumn and winter.” If the Middle East conflict continues and navigation through the Strait of Hormuz does not resume, high crude oil prices will fully transmit price increases for chemical fiber raw materials to autumn and winter ready-to-wear, with expected terminal price increases of 5%-15%.

This means that most apparel products for autumn and winter this year, especially jackets made primarily from chemical fiber materials and produced by small and medium-sized manufacturers, are most likely to experience a new round of price increases.

Taking the currently popular “Taizhou Bird” and “Taizhou Stone” as examples, these basic jackets generally cost around 300 yuan, three-in-one style jackets around 400 yuan, and styles claiming to use high-end materials or special processes mostly priced between 500-800 yuan, offering a greater price advantage compared to Arc’teryx and Kailas jackets costing several thousand or even tens of thousands of yuan.

Screenshot source from Taobao

If price increases commence in the second half of the year, these affordable jackets may see overall price increases of around 15-120 yuan, with the highest price difference nearly equaling half a basic jacket; if the industry outlook remains bullish, major brands may follow suit, allowing an Arc’teryx BETA SL JACKET priced at around 5,400 yuan to potentially increase enough to cover one or even three “Taizhou Birds.”

If price increases continue, the biggest competitive advantage of “Taizhou Birds” compared to authentic major brands will gradually diminish.

Industry insiders point out that these white-label product merchants may increase their product category layouts, gradually adjust fabric ratios, and reduce reliance on chemical fiber materials; at the same time, they can seize the trend of upgrading to natural fibers such as wool, launching high-quality natural fiber products, and explore new growth curves through expanding category maps and upgrading product structures.

In addition, individual merchants can band together to leverage the advantages of industrial clusters to negotiate with upstream suppliers and reduce raw material procurement costs.

According to statistics from Shangshang Sanmen, there are over 300 jacket manufacturing companies and more than 200 e-commerce sales companies in Sanmen County, producing over 80 million jackets annually, with the saying “for every ten jackets, six are made in Sanmen” circulating in the industry, and an annual sales revenue of about 12 billion yuan.

By autumn 2025, the Sanmen Jacket Science and Technology Innovation Park will be completed and put into use. It is understood that this innovation park gathers supporting enterprises for fabrics, zippers, adhesive strips, buttons, etc., forming an integrated industrial cluster for jacket R&D, production, logistics, sales, and incubation. Currently, 33 enterprises have been introduced to the park, six of which have already commenced production. Utilizing the power of industrial clusters, enterprises within the park may gain more assurances in the upstream supply chain.

The turbulence in the apparel industry triggered by the conflict in the Middle East has also served as an important warning to domestic industry players, large and small. Relying solely on low prices and trends for profits is insufficient; at critical moments, without more forward-looking industrial planning, resource reserves, and more products and channels to share risks, being accelerated to be buried by the market is also an inevitable occurrence.