Pork prices decline: How to promote supply and demand balance

This article is reprinted from: Jinan Times

“Pig prices have dropped too much.” “Selling at a loss, but keeping them could mean even greater losses.” Recently, the price of pork in China has continued to decline. Although consumers can buy pork at more affordable prices, many farmers are suffering serious losses and are under significant pressure. What is the current situation in the live pig market? What are the reasons behind the low prices? How should various parties respond? Reporters recently conducted an investigation. Pork prices in many regions have fallen to recent lows.

Recently, reporters learned from multiple locations including Liaoning, Henan, and Beijing that in many places, pork prices have reached their lowest levels in recent years and have continued to accelerate downward since March.

On March 24, at a farmers’ market near Xuecheng Road in Hunnan District, Shenyang City, Liaoning Province, the price of pork had dropped to around 10 yuan per pound, with promotional prices even lower than those of nearby green peppers, ginger, and garlic. Vendor Wang Hongliang stated that pork prices had decreased by about 2 yuan per pound compared to the prices during the Spring Festival.

“Since August 2025, the price of external three-yuan live pigs has continuously dropped from over 7 yuan per pound to just over 5 yuan now, which is the lowest price in many years,” said Huang Dan, head of Ruihui Industrial Co., Ltd. in Yiyang, Hunan Province.

A livestock official from an agricultural and rural bureau in a certain county in Henan Province stated that the current local price for live pigs is between 4.7 and 6 yuan per pound, which is not enough to cover costs even under self-breeding conditions. If labor costs are included, raising a pig could result in a loss of two to three hundred yuan.

According to monitoring by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs of China at 500 county-level market and collection points nationwide, in the third week of March 2026, the price of piglets was 26.2 yuan per kilogram, a decrease of 2.6% month-on-month and a decrease of 30% year-on-year; the price of live pigs was 11.05 yuan per kilogram, a decrease of 2.9% month-on-month and a decrease of 28% year-on-year; the price of pork was 22 yuan per kilogram, a decrease of 2.1% month-on-month and a decrease of 16.5% year-on-year. Supply is high, demand is weak.

Many experts believe that the recent decline in pork prices is the result of multiple intertwined factors.

The supply of live pigs is high. Wang Zuli, a researcher at the Institute of Agricultural Economics and Development of the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences and a scientific expert in the national live pig industry technology system, stated that the current supply of live pigs is at a high level.

The production of live pigs has a fixed cycle, and changes in the number of breeding sows can take about 10 months to transmit to live pig sales. Wang Zuli mentioned that in the first half of last year, China’s pig production capacity was relatively high, along with significant improvements in pig production efficiency in recent years. Especially after the African swine fever epidemic, many breeding enterprises not only improved breeding stock but also updated facilities and equipment, significantly enhancing both pig production capacity and disease prevention capabilities.

“Although last year, policies clearly set the direction for reducing production capacity, challenges remain in execution. For example, some breeding entities have a mindset of ‘survive longer than others to win’, and they are reluctant to reduce production proactively during price increases,” said Zhu Zengyong, a researcher at the Beijing Institute of Animal Husbandry and Veterinary Medicine of the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences.

It is worth noting that pork prices are particularly sensitive to market supply and demand. Zhu Zengyong explained that the relationship between the volume of pork supply and market prices is not proportional; even a slight change in supply can lead to significant price fluctuations.

Pork demand has entered a slow season. “After the New Year, the market generally enters a slow season for pork consumption,” Wang Zuli explained. Many consumers tend to stockpile pork before the New Year, and after the Spring Festival, there will be a 1 to 2 month period for digesting this stock, during which demand is relatively poor.

Market sentiment is low, accelerating the sale of live pigs. Industry insiders told reporters that the current market sentiment towards pork prices is weak. Many farmers are not optimistic about short-term pork prices, and when facing financial pressure, they choose to accelerate the pace of sales, leading to increased supply pressure that further drives down current pork prices. Promoting stable operation in the live pig market.

Zhu Zengyong and other industry insiders believe that the current supply pressure for live pigs will continue, and pork prices are likely to remain low overall in the first half of this year. It is expected that as the effects of earlier capacity adjustments gradually become apparent and pork consumption moves out of the slow season, the supply-demand relationship in the live pig market may improve in the second half of the year.

A representative from a large pig farming enterprise in the central region stated that under the current market conditions, farming enterprises must find ways to reduce production costs, such as optimizing feed formulas, promoting smart feeding, and adjusting production capacity rhythms to enhance efficiency. They hope to further reasonably expand import channels for feed materials like soybean meal to ensure stable supply of imported feed materials, regulate market order, and avoid increasing pressure on farming enterprises due to rising costs.

Experts remind that the industry’s loss period is also prone to outbreaks of diseases. Farmers often try to save money during difficult times, whether it’s on preventive medicines or feed, which may not be as meticulous as usual. However, once a disease outbreak occurs, farmers may suffer severe losses. At the same time, monitoring and early warning must be continuously strengthened, and industry production and sales should be actively guided to ensure stable market supply and promote healthy industry development.

It is understood that the state has begun to accumulate frozen pork reserves and has guided various regions to concurrently increase storage efforts to form a coordinated regulatory force.

In the next step, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the National Development and Reform Commission, and other departments will closely monitor the supply and demand situation and price trends in the live pig market, increase the frequency of warning information releases, study the adjustment of the national normal breeding sow stock target, further release production capacity reduction signals, and carry out production record management for large pig enterprises, continuously strengthening comprehensive regulation of live pig production capacity, timely conducting reserve adjustments, and promoting stable operation in the live pig market. (According to Xinhua News Agency)