Macquarie: If the Iran conflict continues until June, international oil prices could rise to $200 per barrel

Ask AI · Why did Macquarie give a 40% chance of oil prices reaching $200?

As geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East continue to escalate, international oil price trends have become the focus of the global market. Macquarie Group’s latest report warns that if the Iran war drags on until June and the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, oil prices could reach a historic high of $200 per barrel. Meanwhile, multiple institutions, including Goldman Sachs, have also raised their oil price forecasts, believing that high oil prices will persist for a longer duration.

Macquarie: Oil prices could reach a historic high of $200

Analysts Vikas Dwivedi and others at Macquarie Group stated in a report released on March 27 that if the Iran war drags on until June and the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, there is a 40% probability that oil prices could reach a historic high of $200 per barrel. The report also presents another scenario with a 60% probability, suggesting that the war might end by the end of this month.

“If the Strait of Hormuz remains closed for an extended period, oil prices must rise to a level high enough to destroy the largest global oil demand in history,” the analysts wrote in the report. They emphasized that the timing of the strait’s reopening and the extent of actual damage to energy infrastructure are the main factors determining the long-term impact on commodities.

Currently, Iran has implemented an almost complete blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Prior to the conflict, this waterway facilitated the passage of approximately 15 million barrels of crude oil and 5 million barrels of refined oil daily. Now, the total amount of oil transported through the strait is expected to have fallen to 1.5 million barrels per day, far below normal levels, indicating a daily supply gap of 13.5 million barrels.

Goldman Sachs: High oil prices may persist until the end of 2027

Goldman Sachs released a report on March 22, raising its Brent crude oil price forecast for March to April from a previous estimate of $98 per barrel to $110, warning that high oil prices may persist until the end of 2027.

Daan Struyven, head of oil market research at Goldman Sachs, pointed out that the ongoing disruption of the Strait of Hormuz and increasing structural risks to global supply are key factors driving the idea that “high oil prices will last longer.” The firm expects that crude oil transportation through the strait will remain at only 5% of normal levels for the next six weeks and then gradually recover over the following month.

Notably, Goldman Sachs also raised its 2026 Brent crude oil price forecast from $77 per barrel to $85, while indicating that in extreme scenarios where transportation through the Strait of Hormuz is severely constrained for an extended period, “the average daily price of Brent crude could exceed the historical high level of 2008.”