StoneX cuts the 2025/26 global sugar surplus forecast by 70%

K-LinePoet · 2026-03-29T19:45:51+00:00

StoneX has lowered its forecast for the global sugar surplus in 2025/26 to 870,000 tons, due to reduced sugar production expectations in India to 29.7 million tons. This adjustment benefits cane farmers and sugar mills, addressing the long-standing issue of low prices. Production issues in southern India and Uttar Pradesh have led to the forecast change.

K-LinePoet

2026-03-29 19:45:51

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Brokerage firm StoneX has significantly revised its forecast for the global sugar surplus for the 2025/26 fiscal year down to just 870,000 tons, citing a reduction in its expectations for Indian sugar production. In its January report, StoneX had predicted a global sugar market surplus of 2.9 million tons for the period from October 2025 to September 2026. StoneX has lowered its estimate of Indian sugar production from a previous 32.3 million tons to 29.7 million tons. The downward revision of the sugar market surplus estimate is positive for sugarcane growers and mills, who have been troubled by persistently low sugar prices. StoneX indicated that the southern Indian states of Maharashtra and Karnataka faced issues such as premature flowering during the peak harvest period, while sugarcane productivity in Uttar Pradesh has declined.

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