[Red Envelope] March 27: Emotions are chaotic, with high and low cuts. Continue to be optimistic about Merck & Co.; Ouyide is also worth a close look.

Suzhou’s Spring is Warm, the Three Kings Compete for the Cauldron, Electricity’s Tide Recedes Without Looking Back[Taoguba]

A melodious tune, yet unable to sing out a full house of colors.
The spring in Suzhou has indeed warmed through. The magnolias on Pingjiang Road have all fallen, while the wisteria in the Humble Administrator’s Garden is gathering strength. The afternoon temperature has climbed to 20°C, and even the sound of the pipa carries a sense of ease. Today’s market resembles this Suzhou spring scenery—the red plate at 4,300, the index recovering to 3,900; on the surface, it seems like “the garden is full of spring colors”; however, the sharply reduced turnover of 1,863.8 billion is like a pink wall in the garden, forcibly separating this liveliness into a “half-acre square pond.”

For the ultra-short-term players, today’s market situation is a meticulous elimination deep within the garden. Continuous boards, choosing one out of thirty, yesterday’s shining mid-tier stocks have become prisoners today. Yet, on high ground, the three gentlemen on the four boards remain unscathed. This situation is like the corridor of the Canglang Pavilion, separated by a wall; inside the wall is “the clear breeze and bright moon are priceless,” while outside the wall is “the nearby water and distant mountains all have feelings,” each with its own realm. But that wall’s leak only allows one person to glimpse the full view. Funds are similar; they cling to the rare blooms at the pinnacle, abandoning the common flowers at the hillside. It is not a grand feast, but a tea ceremony. Only at the most refined spot does one touch a bit of ink.

The space is temporarily confined to four boards, resembling a fan, limited in size yet needing to depict the universe. Today’s writers are three, with styles and spirits strikingly different.

1. Rongjie Co., Ltd. (002192) | 4 consecutive boards | Lithium Battery’s Leading Force
   • This one is like the “Yellow Stone Rockery” in the Yuyuan Garden, with a solid foundation, a model of “logic as stone, emotion as brushwork.” The rebound in lithium prices and the turbulence from Australia are both solid foundations. The sealed orders are stable, with no waves throughout the day, embodying the majestic demeanor of “Crowning Cloud Peak,” making him the most upright and steady among the three today.
   • Today’s pen strokes are reined in and not released; if tomorrow it cannot continue to seal off with “fine line drawing,” it will surely shift to “splashing ink,” and massive divergences are inevitable. Lithium batteries are a bulk commodity; like the water surface in the Wangshi Garden, broad and full of variations. Facing this “reduced volume” narrow channel, there is a fear of stagnation. Holders of funds can follow the “Another Village” in the Lingering Garden, waiting for the peak to turn and fully change hands before entering the garden. Forcefully attacking the front gate is not the act of a wise person.

2. New Energy Taishan (000720) | 4 consecutive boards | Standing Alone on a High Peak
   • This one occupies a perilous position, like the “Woyun Room” in the Lion Grove Garden, perched high, relying on a sense of “ambiguous blank space”—expectations from power reforms and rumors of restructuring are all clouds and fog in the painting. Peers (Hunan Development, Guangdong Power A) have all faded, while it stands out alone, relying on the two characters “Taishan” in its name, borrowing a bit of mystical momentum, ultimately bearing the risk alone.
   • A lone peak without assistance, high and low in harmony. Peers in the same sector like Guangxi Energy and Jinkong Power are still wandering in the two-board “curved corridor,” unable to construct pavilions and towers for support. Tomorrow’s five boards will reach the peak of “Tiger Hill Pagoda,” with fierce winds and high skies. Once the chips flutter down like falling leaves, it can easily turn into a “heron’s cry” situation. This scene is only suitable for viewing from outside the window, not for being in it.

3. Meinuohua (603538) | 6 days, 5 boards (4 consecutive boards) | Exploring the Curved Alley
   • This one walks the path of “a winding path leads to a secluded place.” The overseas development of innovative drugs is real, but the trend is more of a combination of speculative funds and “changing scenery with every step.” Six days, five boards, popularity is as bustling as the main street of Pingjiang Road, but upon close inspection of the chips, signs of loosening have appeared, just like the murmurs of Wu Nong drowned out amidst tourists jostling for space.
   • The pharmaceutical sector peaked today, like the begonia in the Humble Administrator’s Garden, flourishing yet hard to sustain. Divergence tomorrow is a foregone conclusion. If Meinuohua cannot transition from weak to strong quickly and escape the cost zone, it can easily turn into a “long alley stroll” with a fluctuating trend, losing its explosive power. Ultra-short players should be wary of its transition from “quick board” to “slow board.”

Mid-tier stock warning:
All tickets that advanced from 2 to 3 yesterday have perished today, indicating that the three-board level is currently the “broken bridge” of the market. Today’s two-board echelon (Guangxi Energy, Shida Shenghua, Shenjian Co., Ltd., etc.) may be like bonsai in the Lingering Garden, each exquisite, but tomorrow they will face the cruel “branch trimming.” In a volume-reduced market, mid-tier stocks are like “the wind through the corridor,” coming quickly and leaving quickly, unless they can position themselves as the new mainline leader, otherwise, they are all just passing guests.

**
Lithium Battery’s Broad Waters and Electricity’s Narrow Alley

1. Lithium Batteries (Main Garden’s Scenery, Broad Water is Spirit)
   Today’s strongest wind, 16 stocks have hit the limit. The logic is as open and tough as the water surface in the Yuyuan Garden: lithium carbonate rebound + energy storage production. Rongjie Co., Ltd. is that water pavilion, Shida Shenghua is that curved bridge.
   • Risk points: Ganfeng Lithium, Yongxing Materials, these “big rockeries” have also moved, causing significant blood loss. If tomorrow’s volume cannot expand (i.e., “water” does not rise), who will take over these big stocks? If the peak day does not continue, it is like spring outings avoiding crowded places.

2. Pharmaceuticals (Blooming Flowers by the Courtyard, Enjoying the Fragrance)
   Meinuohua leads, Wanbangde assists. The logic is the overseas development of innovative drugs, like the “Dianchun Pavilion” in the Wangshi Garden, with its elegance, but ultimately not the main hall on the central axis. Pharmaceutical stocks have always had a sluggish nature; apart from the leaders with consecutive board genes, the back rows are mostly high and then fall back. Just focus on Meinuohua, ignoring the back rows, like picking only one branch of flowers.

3. Electricity/Green Electricity (Corridors Turn Cold, Avoid Deep Alleys)
   Yesterday, the promising green electricity was pressed down today. Hunan Development, Guangdong Power A dropped sharply, with only a few surviving such as Guangxi Energy and Jinkong Power. When a high-profile stock in a sector (New Energy Taishan) detaches and revels alone, it is a premonition of “the moon sets and the crow cries.” The electricity sector requires large funds to drive it; in a volume-reduced market, it has been abandoned, like the mountain pond street after dusk, where the prosperity fades, leaving only lanterns.

Four, Emotional Tuning: The “Garden Law” in a Chaotic Period
Your pointed out “emotional chaotic period” is the most precise note of today. This is neither a retreat nor a main rise, but rather a Suzhou garden-style “changing scenery”—seeing doors everywhere, opening them may not lead to paths.

1. Chaotic Representation: The entire market has 78 stocks hitting the limit, but only 10 have consecutive boards. Funds are like guests in the garden, stopping here (lithium batteries), looking there (pharmaceuticals), yet no one is willing to sit long on the bench of “mid-tier stocks.” In a chaotic period, the competition is for “recognizability,” not “position.”

2. 3-4 Board PK Battle (Who is the True Garden Master?):
   ◦ Rongjie Co., Ltd.: Wins in “hardness.” If tomorrow the lithium battery sector does not collapse, it is the most hopeful one to transcend, as orderly as the Yuyuan Garden.
   ◦ Meinuohua: Wins in “vitality.” The pharmaceutical sector peaked today; if it can withstand divergence tomorrow, it will be the true dragon, alive like the Wangshi Garden’s agility.
   ◦ New Energy Taishan: Wins in “risk.” As electricity recedes, if it can still seal five boards, that is the rockery of the Lion Grove Garden, looking perilous, yet actually empty. I see uncertainty.

3. Next Week’s Opening Prediction (Your Prediction is Very Accurate):
   ◦ Low Open and Drop: Probability 70%. Today’s volume is reduced, with ample profit-taking, if Monday opens low, it will be “a cold spring.” That will be a washout, providing a chance to board. At that time, see who resists the drop, who is the true dragon.
   ◦ High Open and Gap: Probability 30%. If there is good news over the weekend (such as lithium prices soaring again), and if Monday opens high to fill the gap, it will be “spring walking into summer,” looking lively, yet actually overdrawn. If Rongjie opens with a limit, it is easy to explode; if Meinuohua opens too high, it is a point for profit-taking. This kind of trend does not give people a chance to board but is more dangerous.

** Electricity Sector: The Tide Recedes Without Sending, Unless High Towers Rise Again**
Your decision is the dignity of leading players. The situation in electricity today is like the Shantang Street after the hour of the pig, the lights are still on, but the people have dispersed.

1. Evidence of Receding Tide: Hunan Development, Guangdong Power A, these core stocks from yesterday hit the nuclear button today. This is not a divergence, but a retreat. New Energy Taishan is on four boards, yet lacks sector support, becoming a lonely minister.
2. Discipline of Leading Players: During a retreat period, do not look, do not read, do not look back. Unless it can rise high again next week—i.e., New Energy Taishan sealing five boards, Hunan Development reversing, and the sector returning to a peak. Otherwise, it is like a fading pipa artist; no matter how well they sing, there will be no audience.
3. The Resolution of Suzhou’s Sentiment: Suzhou people are shrewd; when the tea cools, they replace it with a new cup. The electricity tea has cooled today. Unless it can boil water again and re-brew, we will only drink the hot tea called “lithium batteries” or “pharmaceuticals.”

** Tomorrow’s Strategy: Suzhou Spring Outing Style “Choosing the Path” and “Avoiding Crowds”**
Being in Suzhou, one should learn the shrewdness of Suzhou people—though the spring scenery is beautiful, do not crowd into the bustling throng. If tomorrow’s market continues to reduce volume, the strategy is simply eight words: leave the weak, keep the strong, control positions, and test mistakes.

1. 4 to 5 Decisive Battle (Three Gardens Compete for Supremacy): Rongjie Co., Ltd., New Energy Taishan, and Meinuohua will certainly have a battle tomorrow. Whoever first expands volume and seals five boards will be the new cycle dragon. If all three break their boards, then hold cash and rest, like encountering rain, return home to drink tea.
2. Avoid Mid-tier Stocks (Do Not Wander into Unknown Alleys): Absolutely do not touch tickets that advance from 2 to 3, unless they can position themselves as the new main line (extremely low probability).
3. Focus on New Themes (Seeking the Unknown Garden): If lithium batteries diverge, where will the funds flow? Chemicals (Jinmei Technology) or commercial aerospace (Shenjian Co., Ltd.) or perhaps a new garden.

Suzhou’s spring is the magnolia of the Yuyuan Garden, the night of the Wangshi Garden, and another village in the Lingering Garden. Engaging in ultra-short should be like this—seeking that bit of truth amidst chaos, guarding that moment of tranquility during the retreat. If electricity retreats, let it retreat; if lithium batteries rise, then watch them rise. The heart is like the Suzhou River, flowing slowly, the boat moving slowly, no rush, no competition, just waiting for the wind to come.

Written during the bell tolling at Hanshan Temple outside Suzhou City before dawn, the three thousand mundane affairs are merely a game of chess.

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