[Offense and Defense Practical Strategies] — March 30 Pre-Market Outlook

Objective Information: [淘股吧]

In the context of a significant drop in the external market at noon, A-shares opened low but rose high, showing an independent trend. Throughout the day, there were two instances of individual stocks rising, with 4,337 stocks declining and 1,073 rising, but the rebound still lacked volume. The total trading volume in both markets continued to shrink slightly, down about 90 billion from the last trading day, with a total trading volume of 1.8533 trillion, reaching a recent low. The overall market is experiencing a volume-contracted rebound.

In terms of short-term sentiment, Yunnan Energy Holdings hit the daily limit, while Huadian Liaoning and Huadian Energy performed moderately. However, Liaoning Energy, Zhongli Group, and Zhejiang Xineng have seen significant losses. In terms of consecutive boards, four stocks successfully reached the third board, and one stock advanced to the second board with seven successful advancements overall. The overall advancement situation is quite good, but the transition from the second to the third board has lagged. The first boards continue to maintain a large number of limit-ups.

Regarding thematic hotspots, lithium mines, chemical pharmaceuticals, and military trade are relatively strong, especially the lithium sector, which has seen continuous volume increases and is the strongest direction during Friday.

Personal Thoughts:

The market exhibited an independent trend on Friday, indicating that the impact of external negative news has lessened. With significant drops in the external night market on Friday and a somewhat bearish weekend news outlook, including ongoing conflicts in the Middle East, a normal expectation for Monday would be a low opening. If the market refuses to open low, or if the low opening is very minimal, it suggests that the market is somewhat desensitized to the negative news. This situation would be an outperforming indication, and the intraday market would not be too bad. If it opens low and declines or oscillates after a low opening, as long as it does not break Friday’s low, the overall oscillation structure remains intact, and the short-term expectation continues to be one of oscillation. Recently, the rebound has continued to shrink in volume, and from a broader structure perspective, there has not been a reversal expectation formed here. As long as it can stabilize and consolidate, it is already a good performance.

Looking at short-term sentiment, although Yunnan Energy Holdings has hit the daily limit, high positions have already begun to show continuous loss effects. In contrast, lower positions are performing significantly stronger, with the day’s strongest varieties concentrated in the first or second boards. Thus, the overall short-term environment is not bad, but market preferences are beginning to lean toward lower positions, with a clear tendency for high-low cuts. Under the same logic, Monday should continue to focus on first and second boards. High positions should be monitored for whether the loss effects will further expand. If signs of continuous expansion of loss effects appear, the high position speculation will primarily shift to caution. Attention can be particularly focused on Zhongli Huadian Liaoning and Huadian Energy to see if there will be extreme sell-off actions. As long as both can continue to perform moderately, the risks at high positions will be relatively controllable.

Directionally, based on recent performance, since the outbreak of the Middle East war, the market has gradually shifted from the previous major technology cycle to a major energy cycle. The major technology cycle was a super-strong cycle from the last two to three years, beginning with the release of ChatGPT, peaking before the war broke out in the Middle East. Recently, due to OpenAI’s suspension of Sora2, the entire technology sector in the U.S. stock market has shown signs of overvaluation bubbles. Although some sectors, such as storage and computing power, still possess strong cyclical logic, if the technology bubble in the U.S. stock market truly releases risk, other technology branches will also be easily affected and will find it hard to stand alone. This is a consideration everyone needs to take into account when speculating on major technology. The overarching logic for new energy began with the various energy facilities being bombed and shutting down due to the Middle East conflict, and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz greatly increased oil transportation costs. Many countries can no longer afford oil, especially in Europe, where demand for energy alternatives is very strong. China happens to be the global ceiling for new energy, with expectations for various technologies and equipment to be exported. Here, one needs to understand a simple principle: once war begins, it can’t just stop because you want it to. It’s a straightforward principle; if I slap you, you want it to end, but then I turn to leave and you kick me, what should I do? I can only continue to fight. So when it ends is not up to the old man, but only when the young man decides he no longer wants to fight could it possibly end. The young man has no way out; surrendering is almost like national extinction, so the fighting will continue indefinitely. In the end, as long as the young man does not lose, he wins; as long as the hawk does not win, he loses. It is highly likely that it will be a prolonged war with fighting and negotiating happening simultaneously. The final negotiation conditions can only be proposed by the young man and accepted by the hawk for it to be settled. But this situation is equivalent to the young man winning, which the hawk does not allow. This is why this conflict will not finish quickly, and the market will expect a prolonged war. The duration of the new energy super cycle is entirely related to how long the war lasts. The longer it drags on, the more unfavorable it will be for the hawk. During this process, the U.S. stock market may face tests, especially its technology stocks. Therefore, the overall macro logic has formed a mid-term expectation of switching from major technology to major energy (unless there are sudden changes in the war situation).

Having said all this, the main aim is to provide everyone with a foundational expectation for the future direction. Based on recent performance, various branches of new energy have shown rotation but have not yet experienced a significant overall explosion, mainly because this expectation has not reached a fully clear stage. Next, we need to observe which of these repeatedly active new energy branches will become the leading stocks in the next phase. These branches could be the key speculative branches in the upcoming major new energy cycle.

Looking solely at Monday, there should be some continuation, mainly focusing on whether Rongjie Co., Ltd. can open with a limit, and whether Jiangte Motor can achieve a large-limit opening. If so, the sector will likely continue its inertia, showing healthy divergence. The rhythm will lean toward a holding feast, but there still remains some arbitrage value in the front line intraday. The electricity sector showed clear differentiation on Friday, and there should still be space for continued divergence on Monday. In terms of speculation, it is best to wait until the divergence expectations are further realized before considering it. The computing power sector also performed passively on Friday, with Aoruid unable to drive the sector even after two days of limit hits. The expectations for the sector on Monday should not be too strong. Military trade maintains expectations of repeated activity, but whether it can sustain an outbreak is unclear and needs to be observed during the day.

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