Iran rejects "ceasefire agreement," the U.S. plans a "ground attack," and oil prices open above $115.

As Iran rejects the “ceasefire agreement” proposed by the United States and the U.S. military deployment in the Persian Gulf continues to strengthen, market concerns over the escalation of conflicts in the Middle East have intensified, driving international oil prices sharply higher.

In early Asian trading on Monday, Brent crude futures rose 2.9% at the market open, reaching $115.84 per barrel. U.S. WTI crude futures also increased by 1.7% to $101.35 per barrel. Meanwhile, U.S. stock index futures saw a decline, with S&P 500 futures falling 0.6%, continuing the sell-off trend from the weekend.

As the fighting expands, particularly with the involvement of the Houthis, key channels for global energy and goods transportation face serious threats, significantly increasing market risk aversion.

Iran Rejects the “15-Point Ceasefire Agreement”

While military conflicts continue, diplomatic efforts have not made substantive progress. According to CCTV News, on March 29 local time, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Baghaei stated that the suggestions submitted to Iran by the U.S. through mediators are extremely extreme and unreasonable.

Baghaei pointed out that these suggestions involve Iran’s fundamental rights and do not reflect goodwill or a serious diplomatic attitude. He emphasized that Iran must rely on its own capabilities to ensure security and will use all means to prevent further attacks.

According to Xinhua News Agency, Iranian Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf stated on the 29th that while the U.S. publicly signals negotiations, it secretly plans ground attacks and has proposed a so-called “15-point plan” to end the conflict, attempting to achieve goals that it cannot achieve in war. Ghalibaf emphasized that the U.S. seeks Iran’s surrender, and “our answer is clear: we will never accept humiliation.”

U.S. Intensifies Troop Reinforcements and Plans Ground Operations

Despite U.S. government officials repeatedly mentioning progress in negotiations, U.S. military deployments in the Middle East continue to strengthen. According to Global Times, U.S. media quoted American officials stating that the Pentagon is preparing for “weeks-long ground operations” in Iran.

The U.S. Central Command announced that the 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit aboard the USS Tripoli amphibious assault ship has arrived in the Middle East. The USS Bush carrier strike group is also speeding towards the region. This series of military movements has heightened market concerns about the conflict evolving into a full-scale war.

Iran has responded strongly to this. According to Global Times, a spokesperson for the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps warned on the 29th that U.S. ground operations in Iran would only lead them to “a deep abyss of captivity and death,” and “the sharks of the Persian Gulf are waiting for American soldiers.”

U.S. Military Plans to Seize Iranian Enriched Uranium and Coastal Islands

According to reports from U.S. media on the 29th, President Trump is considering a high-risk, complex military operation aimed at seizing nearly 1,000 pounds of enriched uranium deep inside Iran.

Insiders indicate that Trump has not made a final decision, but he hopes to use the handover of nuclear materials as a condition for ending the war. If Iran refuses to compromise at the negotiating table, the U.S. may resort to force to seize it. Defense Secretary Peter Hegseth had previously also hinted that the U.S. has military options to compel Iran to hand over nuclear materials.

It is reported that the operation to forcibly seize enriched uranium is extremely complex and dangerous. Elite special forces would need to fly to the target under the threat of anti-aircraft missiles and drones, clear mines, and search through the rubble to secure the nuclear materials in special transport barrels. The entire process could take several days or even a week, posing a high risk of casualties and potentially extending the originally set 4 to 6-week timeline for the war.

Additionally, U.S. officials revealed that to provide more operational options, the Pentagon is considering deploying an additional 10,000 ground troops to the region. The U.S. military is also preparing other contingency plans, including deploying Marine Corps rapid reaction forces and paratroopers from the Army’s 82nd Airborne Division to seize strategic islands off the southern coast of Iran.

Under the current framework, “Hark Island” has become a potential key node.

Hark Island is one of Iran’s most important oil export terminals, handling a large volume of crude oil shipments. If this node is controlled or destroyed, the impact on oil prices will be even greater.

Houthi Involvement Poses Threat to Shipping Chokepoints

The scope of the conflict is further expanding. The Houthi forces in Yemen confirmed on the 28th that they had used ballistic missiles to strike sensitive military targets in Israel for the first time. This act not only marks the Houthis’ official involvement in the conflict but also brings new threats to global shipping.

Reports indicate that if the Houthis open a new front in the conflict, their target may be the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait. This is a maritime chokepoint leading to the Suez Canal. Houthi Information Ministry Deputy Minister Mansour warned, “Closing the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait is one of our options.”

Currently, the Strait of Hormuz has effectively been blocked for a month. If the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait is also threatened, the transportation of a large number of shipping containers globally and 12% of the world’s seaborne oil will face serious obstacles, which will undoubtedly have a devastating impact on the global supply chain and energy markets.

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