Chinese robotics shift from "technological breakthroughs" to "market explosion" valuation logic changes

“The current embodied intelligence industry in China is at a critical turning point from ‘technological breakthrough’ to ‘market explosion.’”

Zhang Yimin, former chief scientist of Intel’s China Research Institute and chief scientist of the Advanced Integration Research Institute at Shanghai Jiao Tong University, stated during the first Overseas Investment and Comprehensive Service Exhibition (OIF 2026, hereinafter referred to as ‘the Fair’) at the KETON Robotics Industry Ecosystem Forum that although the entire industry still faces many challenges such as technological maturity, ethics and privacy, as well as cost and market acceptance, China is establishing a leading position in the global embodied intelligence competition, leveraging its advantages of a complete industrial chain and market scale.

Industry Transition: From Technological Breakthrough to Global Competition

Liu Xiaoming, special vice president of the China International Investment Promotion Association, proposed during the aforementioned ecosystem forum that the robotics industry is迎来 a triple windfall of policy, technology, and market, and that China has the most complete supply chain and the richest application scenarios in the world. The key to future development lies in higher-level innovation platforms, more efficient overseas channels, and closer industrial ecosystem collaboration.

Liu Xiaoming offered three suggestions, such as adhering to policy guidance and deeply cultivating technological innovation; strengthening ecological collaboration and uniting to grow stronger; and maintaining a global pace and going out at a high level. In the process of globalization, it is necessary to integrate e-commerce, overseas channels, and cross-border services systems, allowing Chinese robots to achieve high-quality, compliant, and branded overseas expansion and establish global discourse power.

According to Zhang Yimin, there is no need to wait for general artificial intelligence to fully mature; solving 60% to 70% of the problems in specific tasks can enable the application of robots. Currently, robot shipments are primarily focused on scientific research, but in the future, they will expand into diverse scenarios such as industry, business services, and home elder care, with the expectation that robots entering the home elder care sector may become a reality in the next 3 to 5 years.

Zhang Yimin proposed four core directions for breakthroughs in embodied intelligence: the research and development of large models and world models of embodied intelligence, edge-side real-time inference optimization, upgrades of robot bodies, and the integration of cloud-edge-end and human-machine collaboration. He emphasized that the overseas expansion of embodied intelligence is not merely about selling products but requires deep integration with local service systems and sharing after-sales resources to reduce corporate costs.

Zhang Xin, an analyst at Dolphin Investment Research on smart hardware, analyzed that domestic companies, leveraging technological homogeneity, cost control, and rapid response advantages, hold an important position in the upstream components of robotics, but there is a current situation of “strong hardware, weak software.” Future opportunities are concentrated in four directions: hardware localization cost reduction, breakthroughs in emerging hardware fields, tackling software large models, and “going overseas.” He suggested replicating the overseas expansion path of new energy vehicles but emphasized the need to assess geopolitical, supply chain, and human resource risks.

KETON Group Chairman Kang Jingwei stated that the AI industry follows the “energy-chip-infrastructure-large model-application” theory of the “five-layer cake,” and embodied intelligent robots, as the top application of AI in the physical world, need to connect the entire industrial chain. Chinese robotics companies have been international from their inception and should leverage global technology and local industrial chain advantages to serve the global market.

Valuation Restructuring: Capital Pursues “Profitable” Hard Skills

Against the backdrop of the industry moving towards an explosive phase, the valuation logic in the capital market is undergoing a profound transformation, shifting from chasing technological narratives to focusing more on real scenario demands and order conversions.

At the investment and financing roundtable during the aforementioned ecosystem forum, Wang Jiawei, founder of Zhenacheng Consulting, opened with a statistic: According to incomplete statistics, from 2026 to the present, over 190 financings have been completed in the robotics sub-sector, amounting to over 20 billion yuan. After setting a historical high in 2025, it is almost a certainty that 2026 will set another new record.

Liu Yang, vice president of PIX Moving, noted that the industry has shifted from “valuing future expected income” to “pricing based on past stable income,” with capital requiring that financing funds must be used for industrialization and order creation. He emphasized that urban service scenarios, due to their high repetitiveness and structured characteristics, are becoming a quality entry point for the industrialization of embodied intelligence, which can accelerate technology implementation through “scenario dimensionality reduction.”

Chen Zhen, founder of Qianchuang Capital, stated that early investment hotspots focused on body enterprises, but the localization of upstream core components is the foundation of the industry, with technological breakthroughs in reducers, sensors, and other areas possessing greater long-term value. Chen Zhiling, head of Gongteng Investment, cautioned about the potential bubble in the hardware valuation of high-end embodied intelligent robots, noting that industrial customers particularly focus on cost recovery within 18 months, and only companies that can enter real demand scenarios possess investment value.

Regarding the investment preferences of different capital entities, the industry generally believes that dollar and technology funds focus on cutting-edge technologies such as tactile sensors and simulation mechanics; industrial capital pays attention to replicable scenario implementation; and government guidance funds emphasize industrial implementation and employment stimulation, showing high interest in projects like data factories. Looking ahead, the closer a segment is to customers, the stronger its pricing power will be, and deep collaboration between upstream and downstream will become an inevitable trend. Investment hotspots will concentrate on large-scale shipment scenarios, independent data providers, and industrial mergers and acquisitions, with compliance capability becoming a core competitive edge for companies.

Xu Renjie, a partner at Jinghe Law Firm, indicated that enterprises are paying more attention to meticulous structural building before financing, with cross-border structural planning and bet clauses becoming more rigorous, and founders’ joint liability generally set with upper limits. To this end, he suggested that companies establish a three-dimensional intellectual property protection system and proactively arrange compliance with data and AI ethical risk prevention.