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The US-Iran talks show conflicting statements, and international oil prices rise.
Due to disagreements between the United States and Iran regarding negotiations to end hostilities, international oil prices have surged. The current conflict has led to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, disruptions in crude oil production, and raised concerns about a global energy crisis.
As attacks and conflicts continue in multiple countries in the Middle East, Brent crude oil (BZ$1F) is nearing $106 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate crude oil (CL=F) is trading at around $93. After the White House insisted that peace negotiations are still ongoing, President Donald Trump warned Iran to take the negotiations seriously “while there is still time.” Tehran, however, has rejected the U.S. proposals and put forward its own negotiating conditions.
According to Iran’s semi-official Fars News Agency, the Iranian parliament is drafting a bill to impose security fees on ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz. The agency quoted an anonymous lawmaker as saying that the bill is expected to be finalized next week.
This conflict is sweeping through the energy-rich Middle East and impacting the global economy, with Asia being particularly affected. As a global crude oil benchmark, Brent crude is experiencing its largest monthly gain since 1990. The near-total closure of the Strait of Hormuz has resulted in the loss of millions of barrels of oil production capacity daily, significantly raising prices for various refined products from diesel to aviation fuel.
Rob Capito, president of BlackRock, stated that investors may be underestimating the risks posed by the Iranian crisis. Capito said at an event in Melbourne on Thursday that even if “war is declared over tomorrow,” oil prices could still soar to $150 per barrel, as it takes time for supply chains to return to full operation.
Later on Wednesday, President Trump reiterated that the U.S. is negotiating with Iran.
“They are extremely eager to reach an agreement, they just don’t dare to admit it,” he said at a fundraising event in Washington. Additionally, the Wall Street Journal reported that Trump recently told close aides he hopes to end this conflict in the coming weeks.
“For nearly four weeks, the market has shown significant resilience in the face of supply disruptions,” said Paula Rodriguez-Mathus, chief oil analyst at energy consultancy Rystad Energy. “With most spare capacity trapped behind the Strait of Hormuz and inventories continuing to be consumed, the energy market has shifted from a buffer state to a vulnerable state.”
Trump has not announced specific plans, but sources revealed that the Pentagon has ordered the deployment of two Marine Corps expeditionary units to the region—totaling about 5,000 soldiers, equipped with aircraft and landing craft. On Tuesday, a source stated that Trump will also send troops from the Army’s 82nd Airborne Division.