Gasoline in the U.S. is about to break through $4 per gallon! Analysts warn: Even if a ceasefire occurs, oil prices may never return to previous levels…

Ask AI · Why do analysts believe gasoline prices will struggle to return below $3?

Financial Associated Press, March 20 (Editor: Liu Rui) With the attacks by the U.S. and Israel on Iran igniting conflict, gasoline prices in the U.S. have embarked on a “surging” journey: From the beginning of this month to now, the average retail gasoline price in the U.S. has surged by 90 cents per gallon, an increase of over 30%, and is now approaching $4 per gallon.

For a “nation on wheels” like the U.S., rising gasoline prices have a significant impact on the cost of living for American citizens. With the midterm elections approaching, stabilizing oil prices has become an urgent priority for the Trump administration.

However, many analysts point out that the conflict in Iran will continue to drive up oil prices, and even if the war in Iran ends quickly, gasoline prices may struggle to fall below $3 per gallon in the short term.

U.S. gasoline prices are about to break $4 per gallon

According to the American Automobile Association (AAA), as of Thursday Eastern Time, the national average retail gasoline price in the U.S. is $3.88 per gallon. During the same period, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures prices have risen by nearly $30, an increase of 43%, from $67.02 per barrel to $96.14 per barrel.

Analysts say that as crude oil prices continue to soar, U.S. gasoline retail prices are also expected to rise. GasBuddy analyst Patrick De Haan predicts:

“It now seems that U.S. gasoline prices will reach $4 per gallon next week and may continue to rise to $4.10 per gallon or even higher.”

If U.S. gasoline prices surpass the $4 per gallon mark (the last time this level was reached was in August 2022), it will further exacerbate the cost of living pressures for American consumers.

Comparison of U.S. gasoline price trends over the past four years

Gasoline prices are unlikely to fall in the short term

For Trump and the Republican Party, preventing oil prices from surging has become a top priority—especially with the U.S. midterm elections approaching in November; they urgently need to curb inflation in an effort to maintain the Republican Party’s slim majority in Congress.

However, this is no easy task for the Trump administration.

Currently, the war in Iran is disrupting transport through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital maritime chokepoint for most fossil fuel exports from the Persian Gulf to other parts of the world, so crude oil exports from major oil-producing countries in the Middle East are currently impacted.

Analysts point out that for U.S. gasoline prices to drop sharply, the conflict in the Middle East needs to cease quickly, and the Strait of Hormuz needs to be reopened. But even if the conflict can stop quickly, there is no guarantee that gasoline prices can return to pre-war levels in the short term.

Currently, many analysts predict that it will take a long time for U.S. gasoline prices to cool down, and this viewpoint is shared by analysts within the Trump administration.

Firstly, this is because there are currently few ships willing to traverse the Strait of Hormuz, and a large number of tankers are backed up at both ends of the strait. Even if the conflict ceases and the strait is reopened, the backlog of tankers may take up to two weeks to resolve.

Secondly, even after the war ends, oil producers in the Gulf region will need at least a few weeks to restore oil facility operations—considering that some infrastructure has been attacked and damaged, the recovery time may be longer.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) believes that even if oil transport through the strait resumes in April, U.S. gasoline prices will remain elevated for several months or longer, and that “the normalization of refining and retail margins will be even slower.”

Moreover, this Friday (March 20) marks the vernal equinox, signaling the official start of spring. The EIA notes that as spring arrives and temperatures warm up, people’s travel time increases, and U.S. gasoline prices will further rise with the increase in seasonal demand.

Although the EIA believes that U.S. gasoline prices may be near their peak—expecting that as land transport gradually resumes in April, international oil prices are likely to remain relatively moderate for the remainder of 2026 and throughout 2027.

Even so, the EIA predicts that from now until the end of 2027, U.S. gasoline prices will not fall back below $3 per gallon.

The EIA also warns that its predictions remain uncertain and may be revised upward or downward depending on the duration of the conflict in the Middle East, the severity of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and the time needed for Gulf producers to resume operations.

This means that although the Trump administration has recently claimed that oil prices will soon fall back below $3 per gallon, drivers may have to wait over a year to see gasoline prices below $3 again.

(Financial Associated Press, Liu Rui)