This week's macro outlook: Non-farm payrolls coincide with U.S. stock market holiday, and the US-Iran conflict will face a critical turning point.

According to Mars Finance, on March 30, the conflict between the U.S. and Iran has lasted for a month, and the upcoming week will still be full of uncertainties and black swan events. Whether peace talks or conflict escalation will occur, every small move will affect the market’s tense nerves. Besides geopolitical conflicts, the Bank of Japan and the Federal Reserve will present their interest rate hike expectations roadmap to the market. The U.S. non-farm employment data will also significantly impact market liquidity expectations, as follows:

On Monday at 07:50, the Bank of Japan will publish a summary of opinions from the March monetary policy meeting review committee;
On Tuesday at 04:00, New York Fed President Williams will deliver a speech;
On Wednesday at 00:00, Chicago Fed President Goolsbee will give an opening speech at an event hosted by the bank;
On Wednesday at 23:00, 2026 FOMC voter and Dallas Fed President Logan will speak;
On Thursday at 20:30, the U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending March 28 and the U.S. trade balance for February will be released;
On Friday at 20:30, the U.S. unemployment rate for March, U.S. seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls for March, U.S. average hourly wage year-on-year for March, and U.S. average hourly wage month-on-month for March will be published;
On Friday at 21:45, the final value of the U.S. March S&P Global Services PMI will be released.

Lastly, on April 3 (Friday), the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) and Nasdaq will be closed all day; trading of precious metals and U.S. crude oil futures will be suspended all day; stock index futures will end early (Beijing time 21:15); forex and U.S. Treasury futures will end early (Beijing time 23:15); Brent crude oil futures will be suspended all day.