Will the U.S. economy experience another downturn in the cycle?

The four seasons have cycles, and the economy has fluctuations. The market operation part of the economy generally follows the law of cyclical fluctuations. Of course, influenced by the observer’s perspective and individual perception differences, there are two extreme attitudes towards the study of economic cycles: either it is regarded as a criterion, hoping to rely on it for precise timing; or it is dismissed, believing that hindsight is of no value. But it is undeniable that cycles are not an illusory phenomenon, but an inherent necessity of the market economy.

The economic cycle is essentially an institutional phenomenon, its core stemming from the profit-seeking nature of capital, from the sensitivity and alertness of entrepreneurs and investors to profit opportunities, and from the rich imagination and endurance of entrepreneurs and investors in creating markets. The key to observing and utilizing economic cycles lies in selecting a reference frame that suits oneself, choosing appropriate observation indicators, giving up the pre-judgment of turning points, and focusing on “where you are” and “how to respond.”

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