RIVER's recent trading logic analysis during the US dollar's decline

Recently, I made some decisions while trading RIVER, and it has sparked a lot of discussion. Ultimately, my trading choices are based on my own analysis and risk management principles. Under the pressure of the U.S. dollar weakening, how to rationally view market fluctuations and funding rate changes is the key issue that needs to be understood right now.

Historical comparison — normal pullbacks during a bottom bounce

Looking back at RIVER’s price action, the first wave of gains started from $7, went through a long period of choppy consolidation, and was not a straight-line surge. This current rally follows the same pattern: it started from the $7 bottom, climbed to a new high at $21, and then pulled back to around $14. A pullback of about 20% is a normal technical adjustment—an essential reset during the rebound, not a signal of a trend reversal.

Price volatility in the bottom region often makes investors feel an urge to confirm the direction of the market. But historically, truly major rallies usually take time to build; simply waiting to see a temporary up or down move isn’t a rational approach.

High funding rate ≠ inevitable decline — interpreting the fee mechanism

A common misunderstanding in the comments is that a high funding rate automatically means the price must drop significantly. In reality, a high funding rate only reflects the current state of open long positions—not an inevitable signal of price decline. Conversely, investors can also use a high funding rate to earn fee income, and then respond when a real downturn arrives.

It’s also worth noting that funding rate settlement is usually done every 1 hour, but the current market’s settlement interval has been extended to 4 hours. This change directly affects the fee profit cycle and risk management strategy—understanding this is crucial for futures trading.

Waiting for confirmation after U.S. stock market opens

When the market is bullish, participants often want to see the gains immediately and expect the price to surge right away. But in most cases, confirmation of the key direction usually requires waiting for the funding/positioning reaction after the U.S. stock market opens. As a barometer of global risk assets, the performance of U.S. stocks directly influences the short-term trajectory of crypto.

Based on the analysis above, my personal trading bias is bullish, but the prerequisite is being fully mentally prepared for possible short-term pullbacks. If an investor’s judgment is bearish, shorting is also a reasonable choice—the key is to base it on your own analysis framework, not to follow the crowd’s opinion.