Eastmoney's Chen Guo: A-shares still need to remain patient in the short term; China's new energy sector may become a mid-term winner

What are the key bases for Chen Guo’s prediction of the N-shaped trend in A-shares?

21st Century Business Herald Reporter Sun Yongle, Reporting from Shanghai

Currently, the outlook for the U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict remains highly uncertain, and global financial markets are experiencing heightened volatility, with investor panic continuing to spread.

“As long as there isn’t a severe recession or crisis overseas, the impact on the Chinese economy will be limited, and A-shares will gradually become more ‘home-centric’ going forward. New energy may combine both energy substitution and growth attributes, making it one of the relatively certain directions in the medium term,” said Chen Guo, Deputy Director and Chief Strategist of Orient Securities Research Institute, in a recent interview with a reporter from the 21st Century Business Herald.

Chen Guo pointed out that the current market is in a “crisis trading” mode (hedging, rising oil and gas chains), which may trend toward “stagflation trading” and eventually transition to “normal trading.” In an uncertain environment, investing in directions with higher certainty is one approach. In this round of the oil crisis, China’s new energy industry is a potential medium-term winner.

Looking ahead to the 2026 market, Chen Guo believes that this year, A-shares will exhibit an N-shaped trend, while Hong Kong stocks have value as a global low.

He stated that A-shares overall need some patience in the short term, as logically, the situation in Iran is expected to become clearer in the next month to quarter, at which point it may benefit from a decrease in uncertainty and shift from defense to offense; Hong Kong stocks are suitable for value investors to gradually position themselves, and once expectations for domestic demand in China improve, they will have upside elasticity.