BTC 4-hour decline of 0.24%: options expiration and on-chain fund flows resonate to amplify selling pressure

During the period from 00:00 to 04:00 (UTC) on March 30, 2026, BTC oscillated within a narrow range of 65805.9–66089.7 USDT, recording a 4-hour yield of -0.24% and an amplitude of 0.43%. This round of volatility occurred after several consecutive days of decline, with overall market attention increasing, leading to heightened fluctuations and a nearly 20% increase in trading volume compared to the previous day.

The main driving force behind this volatility is the expiration of the largest Bitcoin options on the Deribit platform for 2026, with a settlement amount reaching $1.416 billion and approximately 40% of positions being liquidated. The expiration of the options triggered a short-term increase in liquidity in the spot market, causing some investors to close positions and sell off, directly raising short-term selling pressure. At the same time, on-chain order flow shows that sellers are dominant, with the buy-sell ratio dropping to 0.87, and a net outflow of -898 BTC across the network, further accelerating price declines.

Additionally, during the Asian trading session, selling pressure was concentrated, with significant reductions in order book depth and tightening liquidity. Whales transferred BTC out of exchanges multiple times within 24 hours, with a net outflow of approximately $420,000 over 10 minutes, indicating that large holders are shifting to a wait-and-see or long-term holding strategy. In terms of ETF liquidity, net inflow was zero, and institutional funds showed a clear wait-and-see attitude. On a macro level, global geopolitical tensions, as well as worsening inflation and unemployment data in the United States, have heightened market risk aversion, placing sustained negative pressure on high-risk assets like BTC. Multiple factors combined to amplify short-term volatility.

Currently, both short-term liquidity and price risks for BTC have risen, and attention should be focused on selling pressure, changes in support levels, and large on-chain fund movements during the Asian session. Macroeconomic events and institutional fund trends remain the dominant variables, and short-term investors should be wary of changes in fund flows and unexpected volatility triggered by external events. Monitoring key ranges, whale fund dynamics, and macro news, along with real-time market updates, will help address potential market risks.