Hexun Investment Advisor Wei Yugeng: Is aluminum going to take off today?

The aluminum sector is expected to perform strongly today. If there is a significant gap up in the early session, chasing the price may not be cost-effective. However, if the market is generally affected and opens low or slightly high, opportunities for entry can still be sought. In the early session, New York aluminum futures surged by 5.4%, while gold, silver, and copper declined, which should be differentiated as they are also non-ferrous metals. Additionally, last night, a leading electrolytic aluminum company in Xinjiang released its performance forecast for the first quarter of 2026, which not only proves its operational capabilities but also validates the overall industry’s prosperity. The annual report disclosed over the weekend for 2025 shows that most electrolytic aluminum companies did not meet revenue and profit expectations in the fourth quarter of last year, due to a significant drop in alumina prices while aluminum prices rose sharply. What should have been a time of substantial profits instead turned out to be mediocre, but the performance in the first quarter of 2026 reversed this situation. Thus, the aluminum sector has become a mid- to long-term bullish industry. If electrolytic aluminum companies in the Middle East encounter abnormal damage, it will take two to three years to resume production. Even normal shutdowns followed by resumption will require six to twelve months. Therefore, an overall supply shortage of about 5% in the electrolytic aluminum industry this year is a normal expectation.