"Israeli military on the brink of collapse," How much longer can Netanyahu hold out? | Jing Brewing House

Ask AI · How Does the Haredi Sect’s Exemption from Military Service Affect the IDF’s Manpower Shortage?

▲ File photo: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Photo/ Xinhua News Agency

Iran’s war has been ongoing for more than a month. Recently, multiple Israeli military and political officials issued warnings that, as the IDF fights on multiple fronts, it is on the “brink of collapse,” and the country faces a “security catastrophe.”

According to a report by Xinhua News Agency, Lapid, leader of Israel’s opposition party “There Is a Future,” made remarks earlier, accusing the government led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of forcing the Israel Defense Forces to fight on multiple fronts despite a severe lack of manpower, and even of “directly abandoning wounded soldiers on the battlefield.” He warned that the IDF is “overwhelmed,” and Israel is facing a “security catastrophe.”

The Chief of the General Staff of the Israel Defense Forces, Herzi Halevi, also warned that, due to continuously growing operational demands and an increasingly serious manpower shortage, the IDF’s regular forces have already been “nearing collapse.”

Since the outbreak of the Israel-Palestine conflict in October 2023, the IDF has fought on seven fronts in succession for nearly two and a half years. Its adversaries include Hamas, the Palestinian Islamic Resistance Movement in the Gaza Strip; Hezbollah in Lebanon; Yemen’s Houthi forces; militias in Iraq aligned with Shi’a Islam; Syria; and Iran, among others.

After Iran’s war broke out on February 28 this year, the IDF launched large-scale military operations in Iran and southern Lebanon while maintaining its troop deployments in the Gaza Strip. Military actions on multiple directions have caused the IDF’s war costs and the number of casualties to keep rising.

The warnings issued recently by multiple Israeli officials reflect that internal pressure within the IDF has reached a tipping point. Under these circumstances, how long can Netanyahu still fight?

Israel Struggles to Sustain Long-Term Mobilization

Although Israel is a military powerhouse in the Middle East, it has long faced structural problems of manpower shortages.

Israel’s total population is about 10 million, but its regular forces have been maintained at around 170,000 to 180,000. In addition, it has reserve forces with an upper limit of roughly 450,000; that upper limit may be adjusted depending on wartime conditions.

The role of the reserve forces is to serve on a short-term basis in a state of war, so as not to affect normal social operations. But since the outbreak of the Israel-Palestine conflict in October 2023, because Israel has been fighting on multiple fronts, the government has repeatedly extended and adjusted the authorization for emergency conscription of reserve personnel. At the peak, the conscription upper limit was raised to 360,000.

In early March 2026, as Iran’s war dragged on, the Israeli government raised the conscription upper limit for reservists to 400,000, reaching the highest peak since the 2023 Israel-Palestine conflict.

On the surface, as a nation of universal conscription, with a population base of 10 million, it would seem able to support 400,000 reservists plus a regular army size of 170,000 to 180,000. But in reality, because extremist Orthodox Jewish figures (the Haredi) do not have to serve, only the able-bodied population among 8.5 million can be mobilized. This has led, over the past two and a half years, to some Israeli reservists being called up for 6 to 7 rounds, with their lives and work severely affected.

Before Iran’s war broke out, to make up for manpower shortages, Israel pushed legislation to require the Haredi to serve. Netanyahu also promised that the relevant bill would be passed after this year’s Passover (around April), but because he feared that right-wing religious parties in the ruling coalition would oppose it, the bill has been shelved.

Multi-front operations and an unfair conscription system show that Israeli society’s capacity to sustain long-term mobilization is continuing to decline.

▲ File photo: On March 24, in Tel Aviv, Israel, emergency personnel worked at a missile strike site. Photo/ Xinhua News Agency

Manpower Shortages Could Show Up in Lebanon

The IDF’s lack of manpower is currently becoming even more apparent because it has opened a second front in Lebanon.

Fighting Hezbollah in Lebanon differs from fighting Iran. To achieve the goal of clearing the opponent and establishing a buffer zone that does not threaten Israel’s northern region, the IDF must deploy ground forces.

Publicly available information shows that since Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon launched a large-scale conflict, at least several thousand soldiers have been deployed here at strategic flashpoints. The scale is no longer at the level of a battle, but at the level of a campaign. In addition, more reserve forces are deployed along the Israel-Lebanon border, waiting for rotations.

All kinds of information indicate that Israel’s deployment of a large number of ground forces in southern Lebanon is not a short-term move. Netanyahu previously said Israel is building a larger “buffer zone” in Lebanon, and that the focus now is to “dismantle Hezbollah,” with a determination “to fundamentally change the situation in Lebanon.”

Israeli military officials have also stated that they will expand the so-called “buffer zone” to the Litani River. This means that about 10% of Lebanon’s territory would be occupied by the IDF—and it would be a long-term occupation.

If the IDF occupies southern Lebanon for the long term, the IDF’s manpower shortage issue would also be brought into sharper focus. Can Netanyahu hold out?

Netanyahu Still Finds It Hard to Stop

Judging from the current situation, there are several key factors in how long Netanyahu can hold out.

For example, U.S. support. Of course, there are many Israel supporters around Trump. The two Middle East envoys of the United States—Witkoff and Kushner—are known for supporting Israel, and the current White House chief of staff, Susie Wiles, also leans toward Israel to a large extent.

So some analysis suggests that the United States and Israel attacking Iran is the “United States fighting for Israel.” But at the same time, Trump’s team also has members who oppose providing Israel with unlimited support. The vice president, J.D. Vance, who has been hailed by the MAGA camp as a leading figure, and the U.S. Director of National Intelligence, Tulsi Gabbard, both fall into this category.

The course of Iran’s war has already shown that the United States’ influence on Netanyahu’s war decision-making is limited. Therefore, the most important factor for whether the U.S. will end or stop Netanyahu’s war is unlikely to be whether Netanyahu ends the war.

Also, it depends on how hard Netanyahu pushes his “Greater Israel” plan (the New Middle East Plan). After more than two years of a new round of Israel-Palestine conflict, the IDF has successively controlled the Gaza Strip and the buffer zone in the Golan Heights, and now has troops stationed in southern Lebanon as well. These are all areas that Israel’s right-wing circles have designated as part of “Greater Israel.”

This shows that Israel may be using Iran’s war to advance the “Greater Israel” plan. Unless the IDF’s deployments reach their limit, Netanyahu likely won’t stop.

Of course, the decisive factor to get Netanyahu to stop can only be Israeli society.

Latest Israeli polling shows that support for Netanyahu’s military actions in Iran and southern Lebanon still makes up a majority. But if Israeli cities experience prolonged disruptions to production and daily life because of missile strikes, and combined with the existence of unfairness in the conscription system, public opinion may swing, and that could lead to Netanyahu’s war authorization being withdrawn.

Will this happen? It’s not known at this time. But the “IDF collapse” warnings issued by