Sarah's impeachment case holds its first public hearing, sparking a "life-and-death" showdown between two major Filipino families?

Question AI · How does the impeachment case reveal the deep maneuvers of political families in the Philippines?

On the 25th, the House Judiciary Committee of the Philippines held its first public hearing on the impeachment case against Vice President Sara Duterte. Three more hearings are expected next month. If the House approves the impeachment, the case will be transferred to the Senate for trial.

Sara is the strongest candidate to challenge current President Marcos in the 2028 Philippine elections. Given that the outcome of the impeachment affects Sara’s ability to run for office, this hearing is seen as the prologue to a “life-and-death struggle” between the two major political families.

Can Sara overcome this impeachment hurdle like she did last year? What does the intense competition between the two families reflect about the political reality in the Philippines? Besides the escalating internal power struggle, what other external pressures does the Marcos government face?

The point of public disagreement

The hearing on the 25th primarily established the procedural framework for the impeachment. Sara did not attend.

According to the procedure, the House Judiciary Committee also plans to hold hearings on April 14, 22, and 29. If the full House votes to approve the impeachment articles by more than 1/3 of the votes, the case will be submitted to the Senate for trial.

At that time, senators will make a ruling on the case, and a conviction requires a two-thirds majority vote. If convicted, the impeached individual will be removed from office and may be banned from holding public office again.

What prompted this impeachment hearing? It begins with the grievances between the Marcos and Duterte families.

The two families have solid foundations in the northern and southern Philippines, respectively. In 2022, Marcos and Sara teamed up to run for president and vice president, winning the election; this alliance was seen as a “match made in heaven.” However, they quickly fell out due to disagreements over cabinet appointments and foreign policy.

In 2025, several events further deteriorated the relationship between the two camps.

First, Sara’s father, former President Duterte, was arrested and extradited to the International Criminal Court in The Hague. The Marcos government’s attitude of “cooperating with judicial processes” led to speculation of “using a knife to kill.”

Second, Sara faced impeachment in the House, which was later halted by the Supreme Court due to procedural unconstitutionality, but the political infighting did not subside.

At the beginning of February this year, the impeachment ban (which stipulates that no more than one impeachment can be initiated against the same official within one year) expired, and Sara faced impeachment charges again, which is the origin of the current impeachment hearing.

The accusations against Sara primarily include two aspects: abuse of public funds and threats to kill Marcos, the “First Lady,” and the former Speaker of the House.

Some commentators believe that, although the initiators of this impeachment do not appear to come from the Marcos camp, but from civil organizations and leftist groups in the Philippines, the Marcos government can push the “anti-Duterte” groups to initiate impeachment through acquiescence, cooperation, and manipulation. Public opinion points out that the impeachment hearing process has become an important node for the public disclosure of political divisions in the Philippines.

Can one survive under “pursuit”?

“Without a doubt, this is a political hunt.” Dai Fan, Vice Dean of the School of International Relations at Jinan University and Director of the Philippine Research Center, stated that the reason for targeting Sara is primarily because Marcos needs to consider the future of his family. If Sara participates in and wins the next election, the Marcos family will face a reckoning.

Polls show that Sara currently leads with a 55% approval rating compared to Marcos’s 36%, making her the strongest candidate to succeed Marcos. Additionally, in the 2025 midterm elections, the performance of the Duterte camp exceeded expectations, which is seen as a pre-election battle.

Regarding the direction of the impeachment case, Dai noted that the House is primarily focusing on determining the facts of the violations, which is likely to result in the impeachment being passed. However, once the case is transferred to the Senate, it will be more challenging, as 18 senators’ consent is needed to pass the impeachment.

But this does not mean that Sara will successfully “pass the barrier” 100%.

On one hand, after the corruption case involving the Philippines’ flood control projects in 2025, public attention to corruption cases has increased, which will put pressure on senators opposing the impeachment. On the other hand, there is a possibility that Marcos’s faction will seek to buy off senators from the “Duterte faction” to support the impeachment.

It is also important to note that legal cases in the Philippines often take a long time to process. Since 1986, there has only been one impeachment case that has successfully completed the entire legal process and resulted in a conviction. Therefore, all parties will continue to maneuver.

If Sara survives this crisis, she is likely to use the image of a “victim of political persecution” to solidify her support base, positioning herself favorably for the 2028 elections.

If she wins, she will further bolster the political power of the Duterte family, potentially attracting the opposition to side with the “Duterte faction.” The Marcos family will then face relentless judicial pursuits. However, it is expected that Duterte will find it difficult to return to the Philippines due to ongoing investigations by the International Criminal Court in The Hague.

If Sara is brought down by the impeachment case, it would clear the obstacles for Marcos, allowing him to nominate a more favorable successor. However, the Duterte family may still have contingencies, such as selecting someone else to “take over” the candidacy and launching a family defense campaign.

“Although the prestige of the successor may not match that of Sara, public opinion in the Philippines is unique. Sometimes, even individuals with insufficient capability may be elected president under public pressure… Therefore, Marcos and his faction should not rest easy,” Dai said.

Additionally, the Philippine political landscape is not solely composed of the Marcos and Duterte families; the opposition Liberal Party may emerge as a “third force” in the elections. They share common interests with the “Marcos faction” in “overthrowing Sara,” but do not harbor goodwill toward Marcos. Therefore, the fragmentation and uncertainty in Philippine politics may intensify.

It is expected that Marcos’s governance pattern in 2026 will remain relatively stable, but as preparations for next year’s elections begin, many allies may form alliances for political gain, abandoning Marcos, leading to greater challenges for the ruling authorities.

Vulnerability of the energy system

In addition to the dazzling political maneuvers, the Philippines is also facing some external risks.

On the 24th, Marcos announced a national energy emergency, effective for one year.

As of March 20, the Philippines’ fuel supply can sustain for about 45 days. The government is procuring over 1 million barrels of oil to establish a buffer stock and is seeking to import oil from countries under U.S. sanctions.

The Philippines relies on the Gulf region for 98% of its oil imports. Since the outbreak of the Iran conflict on February 28, the prices of diesel and gasoline in the Philippines have doubled, making it the first country to declare a state of energy emergency.

Dai believes that the Philippines finds itself in such a predicament due to its weak economic foundation, limited resources controlled by the government, and the scant public goods it can provide—such as oil prices, water prices, and electricity prices, which have virtually no government subsidies and follow free pricing. The electricity price in the Philippines ranks second in Southeast Asia, only after Singapore, which is particularly unusual.

On the other hand, inflation in the Philippines continues to escalate, with the Philippine peso hitting historic lows against the dollar. The government lacks the funds and resources to establish sufficient oil reserves, and the Philippines is extremely dependent on Middle Eastern imports. The vulnerability of the Philippine energy system has been starkly exposed in this situation.

Observers note that against the backdrop of the energy crisis, the Marcos government seems to be sending new signals to China.

The Global Times cited foreign media reports stating that Marcos expressed an open attitude towards restarting the stalled oil and gas negotiations between the Philippines and China in a recent interview.

Dai believes that the Philippines has a certain economic reliance on China, but after 2023, the Philippines is extremely dependent on the U.S. in terms of politics and security, continuously provoking issues in the South China Sea. Public opinion suggests that Marcos’s new statements are partly due to the declining perception of the U.S. among Filipinos following U.S. support for Israel’s actions against Iran; on the other hand, it is also a practical necessity amid the energy crisis.

Analysts also believe that in response to the pressure from the energy crisis, the Marcos government may make some adjustments to its policy of “complete reliance on the U.S.,” but high expectations for a shift in its foreign policy should not be held.

(Editor’s email: ylq@jfdaily.com)