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How is the expiration of highway tolls handled?
In listed REITs, aren’t high-speed REITs the least well-liked? Their annual distribution yield is relatively high, and it’s also over 10%.
The rationale given is that they don’t repay the principal, so part of what’s being distributed is actually principal.
But it’s a bit strange—doesn’t this seem a little too outrageous?
The highest distribution I’ve seen is 14%. If distributions continue for 15 years and the principal still isn’t repaid, then the annualized return would apparently be around 12%.
But high-speed highway stocks are basically a bundle of high-speed REITs—why is it that people can accept such a low dividend yield for high-speed highway stocks?
For example, China Merchants Expressway’s latest dividend is only 4%.
Highways also have a term. I asked about a few Beijing expressways.
For example, the Jingjin-Tang Expressway is part of China Merchants Expressway. The toll collection term is said to run through 2027.
Then there’s a logic that tolls can be extended through reconstruction and expansion.
The issue is that reconstruction and expansion also requires money—so it’s like starting a new stream of cash flow again.
According to Doubao’s wording:
According to the company’s announcement wording, the total project investment is about 173.45 billion yuan; industry and institutional expectations are that, after completion, annual toll revenue could rise to 8–12 billion yuan.
Suppose the investment is 173 billion yuan; once completed, tolls are 10 billion yuan—if we assume it’s all profit, then extending toll collection by 25 years would mean the annualized return is only about 3%.
With low-interest bank loan leverage, returns should be higher.
Is it like this?