Two major aluminum plants in the Middle East attacked! Several stocks in the aluminum sector hit the daily limit. The latest stocks being aggressively accumulated by leveraged investors revealed.

The aluminum sector showed strong performance in the morning of March 30, with Liyuan Co., Minfa Aluminum, Yiqiu Resources, and Chang Aluminum hitting the daily limit; Yun Aluminum, Yinbang Co., Zhongfu Industrial, and Nanshan Aluminum also saw significant gains.

Two Aluminum Plants in the Middle East Attacked

According to a report by Xinhua News Agency on March 29, two large aluminum plants in the Gulf countries of Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates recently confirmed they were attacked by Iran. The attacks caused injuries and property damage.

Bahrain Aluminum Company stated on the 29th that its plant was struck by Iran on the 28th, resulting in two minor injuries. The company is currently assessing property losses. Previously, this company and its parent had declared a “force majeure” due to shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, leading to a production reduction of about 20%.

Emirates Global Aluminum, one of the world’s largest aluminum producers, also confirmed on the 28th that it was attacked by Iran. A factory located in Abu Dhabi’s industrial zone suffered significant losses, with several Indian and Pakistani workers injured.

On the 29th, the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps issued a statement saying that they used missiles and drones to strike two aluminum plants in the UAE and Bahrain related to the U.S. military and aerospace industries, in retaliation for U.S.-Israeli attacks on Iranian steel mills and other civilian facilities.

According to the 21st Century Business Herald, as the third-largest electrolytic aluminum production region globally, the six Middle Eastern countries (Iran, UAE, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Oman) are projected to reach an electrolytic aluminum capacity of 7.051 million tons per year by 2025, accounting for about 9% of global production. The two attacked companies together account for over 6% of the global total capacity.

LME Aluminum Prices Fluctuate Higher

Data shows that aluminum, known as the “modern industrial backbone,” is an important metal in the global industrial “basket,” and one of the non-oil commodities most affected by Middle Eastern conflicts.

Disruptions in aluminum supply could tighten supply chains in advanced manufacturing sectors, increasing costs in automotive, aerospace, and construction industries. A CITIC Securities research report states that with the resurgence of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, risks to aluminum capacity, shipping, and energy supply in the Middle East have significantly increased. Subsequent disruptions in the Middle Eastern aluminum industry chain and the risk of secondary energy crises overseas should not be overlooked. Reviewing the energy crisis of 2021–2022, aluminum prices and sector gains increased by up to 60% and 100%. Looking ahead, rising concerns about supply in the aluminum industry chain may push prices higher than previously expected.

Since the outbreak of the recent U.S.-Iran conflict on February 28, LME aluminum prices briefly surged to $3,546.5 per ton, hitting a nearly four-year high. On March 30, prices once again rose over 6%.

At the market open on March 30, Shanghai aluminum main contracts surged, with gains approaching 4%. However, as concerns about inflation and economic slowdown increased, the aluminum sector experienced volatility under the overall suppression from the non-ferrous metals sector.

11 Stocks Net Bought via Margin Financing

In this context, data from Eastmoney Choice shows that since the beginning of this month, 11 stocks in the aluminum sector have been net purchased through margin financing, with Xinjiang Zhonghe, Yun Aluminum, and Hongqiao Group seeing net inflows exceeding 100 million yuan, at 221 million, 149 million, and 107 million yuan respectively.

Based on institutional forecasts for 2026 performance, most of these stocks with net margin financing purchases are expected to see high growth. For example, Shenhuo Co. is projected to grow 93.69% year-over-year in 2026. Hongqiao Group, Yun Aluminum, and Hesheng Co. are expected to grow over 50%; China Aluminum and Xinjiang Zhonghe over 40%; Zhongfu Industrial over 30%.

Maintaining Bullish Outlook in Q2?

For the upcoming second quarter, Guoxin Futures suggests that investors should focus on the Middle East situation as an anchor, seizing bullish opportunities for aluminum prices amid fluctuating market patterns.

In terms of alumina, the market in Q2 is expected to be in a phase where cost-driven upward pressure and supply constraints coexist. Rising costs will support prices at the bottom, but oversupply expectations will limit upward potential. Whether industry profits can continue to recover depends on the upward momentum of alumina prices. Market focus will be on the actual impact and significance of Guinea’s bauxite export reduction policies, as well as how the evolving Middle East situation influences maritime transport and overseas alumina trade flows. Under this backdrop, alumina prices are expected to oscillate upward, facing periodic resistance, with capital speculation possibly amplifying volatility, leading to a pattern of rising followed by retreating.

Regarding electrolytic aluminum, macro disturbances combined with fundamental support suggest that prices in Q2 will likely fluctuate with a bias toward strength, with further upward movement possible. Key supports include existing production cuts, ongoing risk premiums, overseas spot premiums, and domestic destocking; key resistances include tightening macro liquidity, recession fears, and selling pressure during negative sentiment periods. The main variable is the development of the Middle East situation. If tensions ease, aluminum prices may initially rise and then retreat as risk premiums unwind after sentiment recovery; if tensions worsen and persist, bearish macro sentiment will suppress risk assets. Although prices may face downward pressure, supply shortages could provide significant support, making prices resistant to declines. If the conflict causes further supply gaps, aluminum prices may break free from macro and sector sentiment constraints and trend upward independently.

In terms of casting aluminum alloys, rigid cost structures limit downside potential, while seasonal demand uncertainties and macro risks restrict upside. Futures prices for casting aluminum alloys will mainly follow electrolytic aluminum trends but are expected to perform weaker overall due to weaker fundamentals.

(Source: Eastmoney Research Center)