TrendForce estimates that global notebook shipments will decrease by 14.8% year-over-year in 2026.

Ask AI · How Apple’s in-house chips could help it reverse the trend and regain momentum during the industry downturn?

According to IT Home’s April 1 report, TrendForce of CINNO Research and Consulting released a report on March 30, lowering its 2026 global laptop shipment forecast, and Apple could become the only bright spot amid a difficult backdrop.

The firm noted that, hit by a double blow from weak macroeconomic conditions and rising supply-chain costs, global laptop shipments in 2026 are expected to fall 14.8% year over year. During the deep adjustment winter that the industry is facing, Apple is expected to break through against the trend and achieve positive growth of 7.7%.

The firm’s insights point to two core factors driving a cliff-like downward revision of overall market expectations for 2026: first, persistent macroeconomic headwinds continue to batter the industry, causing the consumer market’s recovery to fall far short of expectations.

Second, demand for AI computing is growing explosively, directly raising procurement costs for key components and creating enormous pricing pressure across the entire industrial chain.

As upstream key component costs keep climbing, major brands have no choice but to pass the increased costs on to end consumers in order to protect their slim profit margins.

TrendForce explicitly stated that retail prices for laptops will continue to rise over the next several quarters. This upward pricing trend will inevitably cause consumers to tighten their wallets and weaken their willingness to buy new devices.

In such a headwind environment, Apple’s strong resilience is largely attributable to its long-term supply-chain moat and its ongoing efforts to reduce reliance on external suppliers. By using highly standardized product specifications, Apple can centralize procurement of core components, thereby gaining absolute initiative in long-term contract negotiations.

The firm believes that Apple’s recent MacBook Neo model has become the key engine driving growth. This new device is equipped with Apple’s in-house chips, completely breaking free from capacity constraints imposed by traditional processor suppliers. The in-house architecture not only gives Apple far greater flexibility in allocating production capacity, but also establishes a substantial advantage in cost control—ultimately supporting its optimistic outlook for growth against the trend.