Is Noble (NE) Still Reasonably Priced After Its Recent 69% One Year Surge

Simply Wall St

Mon, February 16, 2026 at 8:11 AM GMT+9 5 min read

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NE

+7.61%

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If you are wondering whether Noble is still reasonably priced after its recent run, you are not alone. This article will focus squarely on what the current share price might imply about value.

Noble's share price sits at US$45.82, with returns of 16.9% over the past 7 days, 40.2% over 30 days, 58.0% year to date and 69.3% over the last year. This naturally raises questions about how much optimism is already reflected in the price.

Recent news flow around Noble has focused on its position in the energy sector, its contract portfolio and investor interest in offshore drilling exposure. This gives investors more information to weigh against the stock's recent performance. Together, these developments help set the scene for assessing whether the current valuation still lines up with the fundamentals.

On our valuation checklist, Noble scores 3 out of 6. This suggests some areas where it screens as undervalued and others where it looks more fully priced. Next, we will walk through the key valuation approaches before finishing with a different, often overlooked way to judge value.

Noble delivered 69.3% returns over the last year. See how this stacks up to the rest of the Energy Services industry.

Approach 1: Noble Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

A Discounted Cash Flow, or DCF, model estimates what a company could be worth by projecting its future cash flows and discounting them back to today using a required return. It is essentially asking what all of Noble’s future cash flows are worth in today’s dollars.

For Noble, the model used is a 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity approach. The latest twelve month free cash flow sits at about US$400.9 million. Analysts provide explicit forecasts out to 2027, where free cash flow is projected at US$435.0 million, and Simply Wall St extrapolates this further, with projected free cash flow of US$874.5 million in 2035. All cash flows are in US$, even if reported in a different currency.

Bringing these projected cash flows back to today, the model arrives at an estimated intrinsic value of US$92.05 per share. Against the current share price of US$45.82, this implies the shares trade at a 50.2% discount to the DCF estimate. This indicates a meaningful gap between the market price and this cash flow based value.

Result: UNDERVALUED

Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests Noble is undervalued by 50.2%. Track this in your watchlist or portfolio, or discover 53 more high quality undervalued stocks.

La historia continúa  

NE Discounted Cash Flow as at Feb 2026

Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for Noble.

Approach 2: Noble Price vs Earnings

For a profitable company like Noble, the P/E ratio is a useful way to think about what you are paying for each dollar of earnings. Higher growth expectations or lower perceived risk can support a higher P/E, while slower expected growth or higher risk usually call for a lower, more conservative multiple.

Noble currently trades on a P/E of 33.66x. That sits close to the peer group average of 33.88x and above the Energy Services industry average of 25.04x. On the surface, the market is valuing Noble in line with peers and at a premium to the broader industry.

Simply Wall St’s Fair Ratio for Noble is 22.24x. This is a proprietary estimate of what a “normal” P/E could be, given factors such as Noble’s earnings growth profile, industry, profit margins, market cap and key risks. Because it blends these company specific inputs, the Fair Ratio can be more informative than a simple comparison against peers or the industry, which may not share the same growth outlook or risk mix. Compared with the current 33.66x P/E, the Fair Ratio suggests the shares may be pricing in richer expectations than those fundamentals support.

Result: OVERVALUED

NYSE:NE P/E Ratio as at Feb 2026

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Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your Noble Narrative

Earlier we mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation, so let us introduce Narratives. These let you attach a clear story to the numbers by linking your view of Noble’s future revenue, earnings and margins to a financial forecast, a Fair Value estimate and then a simple comparison against the current share price to help you decide if and when to act.

On Simply Wall St’s Community page, Narratives are an easy tool you can use to set out your assumptions, see how they translate into forecasts and Fair Value, and then watch them update automatically as new news, contracts or earnings for Noble come through.

For example, one Noble Narrative on the platform currently anchors around a Fair Value of about US$41.25 per share while another sits closer to US$25.00. This shows how two investors can look at the same company, plug in different expectations and reach very different, but clearly explained, conclusions about what the shares might be worth today.

Do you think there’s more to the story for Noble? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!

NYSE:NE 1-Year Stock Price Chart

_ This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned._

Companies discussed in this article include NE.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly._ Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com_

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