Polymarket "Anthropic's 2026 publicly disclosed valuation exceeds $500 billion" probability is temporarily reported at 90%

Odaily · 2026-04-01T04:02:14+00:00

Odaily Seer monitoring shows that, influenced by OpenAI's massive funding round, the probability of Anthropic's publicly disclosed valuation exceeding $500 billion by 2026 has decreased from 93% to 90%, but has recently increased by 4%. This valuation needs to be confirmed before the end of 2026 or reach a broad consensus through widespread reporting. Previously, Anthropic completed a $30 billion funding round, with a valuation of $380 billion.

Odaily

2026-04-01 04:02:14

Abstract generation in progress

Odaily Seer’s prophet channel monitoring shows that, either due to the “OpenAI completes a $122 billion committed capital deal, with a post-investment valuation of $852 billion” headline or its impact, the probability that Anthropic’s publicly disclosed valuation in 2026 would exceed $50 billion within a single day briefly fell from 93% to 90%, and it has risen 4% over the past 7 days.

The event determination criteria are that, as of 11:59 p.m. on December 31, 2026 (U.S. Eastern Time), if a publicly disclosed valuation reaches $50 billion or more, or if, in a private financing, the company’s valuation reaches $50 billion or more, then the event will be judged as “Yes.” Otherwise, it will be judged as “No.”

This valuation must be explicitly confirmed by Anthropic, or be supported by an overwhelming, credible reporting consensus. The primary sources will be Anthropic’s official announcements, but credible consensus reporting may also be used.

In earlier news, Anthropic completed a $30 billion Series G round this February, with a post-investment valuation of $38 billion. GIC and Coatue led the investment, with co-leads including D.E. Shaw Ventures, Dragoneer, Founders Fund, ICONIQ, and MGX, and participation from Accel, Addition, JPMorgan, Sequoia Capital, Temasek, and others.

Odaily Seer’s prophet channel continues to monitor prediction markets, and before pricing, it sees the changes.

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