Analysis: Weak U.S. Economy, Iran War, and Institutional Selling Pressure Cloud Bitcoin's Breakout Beyond $75,000

According to market analysts, Bitcoin's attempt to rebound to $75,000 faces numerous obstacles, primarily influenced by a series of complex factors including a weak U.S. economy, the Iran war, and institutional sell-offs.

President Trump delivered a speech on Wednesday, but it failed to provide a clear guarantee of ending the Iran conflict, leading to a surge in international oil prices, significant fluctuations in WTI crude oil prices, and a strong risk-averse sentiment across the market, making the overall atmosphere increasingly tense.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin encountered resistance near $69,000. Although it successfully held the $66,000 support level, traders remain cautious about downside risks during the upcoming weekend market closure.

Additionally, the number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits continued to rise to 1.84 million. Coupled with concerns from the U.S. Treasury about a $2 trillion private credit market, this data further exacerbates short-term bearish sentiment in the market.

Since March 24, there has been a net outflow of $450 million from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, reflecting weakening institutional demand for Bitcoin. This trend of institutional selling has directly impacted Bitcoin's market performance.

As of now, despite Bitcoin successfully holding the critical $66,000 level this week, traders remain worried about downside risks over the weekend. In the current complex market environment, even minor changes can trigger chain reactions.

However, some analysts suggest that there is still hope. It is projected that by 2026, the U.S. federal deficit will reach an astonishing $1.9 trillion;

Meanwhile, the government may adopt liquidity injection measures to ease economic pressures, which could be a potential positive factor for scarce assets like Bitcoin.

Nevertheless, amid numerous negative factors, whether macroeconomic policies can influence Bitcoin and push it beyond $75,000 remains to be further validated by the market.

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