The six major state-owned banks will conclude their 2025 performance! What's the confidence behind the 420 billion yuan in dividends?

AI Q: How do the six state-owned “big banks” safeguard long-term stable dividend payouts of over 420 billion yuan?

With the official release of Agricultural Bank of China’s and Bank of China’s annual reports on the evening of March 30, the disclosure of the six state-owned “big banks” for FY 2025 has been completed in full. Over the past year, facing a complex and ever-changing market environment, all six state-owned banks delivered both revenue and attributable-to-shareholders net profit with “positive double-digit growth,” turning in a solid set of results. Against the backdrop of widespread pressure on net interest margins, the six banks actively responded by optimizing credit portfolios and strengthening cost control on the funding side, while also setting aside more than 420 billion yuan for dividends to reward shareholders—earning them the role of the “stabilizing ballast” in the capital markets. Meanwhile, amid the wave of digital transformation, the rapid rollout of AI technology has been especially striking—from credit approval to risk management and control, artificial intelligence is being deeply integrated into the end-to-end business process.

In the view of industry analysts, this set of results reflects a further improvement in the operating resilience of state-owned banks during periods of economic adjustment. Looking ahead, it is expected that the dividends of state-owned banks will continue to maintain a steady cadence, while financial services will be embedded more deeply into the industrial chains of the real economy, gradually forming a new ecosystem of finance, technology, and industry.

“Positive double-digit growth” in revenue and net profit

On the evening of March 30, the annual reports of Agricultural Bank of China and Bank of China were released. By then, the “answer sheets” for the six state-owned banks for FY 2025 had all come to light. A reporter from Beijing Business Daily reviewed and found that all six banks achieved “positive double-digit growth” in both operating revenue and net profit, with total net profit reaching 1,424.56 billion yuan.

Operating income is the primary benchmark used to gauge the operating performance of commercial banks. Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) remains firmly in the “top seat.” The data show that at the end of the reporting period, the bank led the six big banks with operating revenue of 838.27 billion yuan. China Construction Bank, Agricultural Bank of China, and Bank of China ranked in the second tier with 761.05 billion yuan, 725.31 billion yuan, and 658.31 billion yuan, respectively. Postal Savings Bank of China and Bank of Communications had operating revenue of 355.73 billion yuan and 265.07 billion yuan, respectively.

Net profit, which directly reflects a commercial bank’s core profitability, saw a slight shift in its ranking compared with revenue. Among them, ICBC once again topped the list for “profit king” with attributable-to-shareholders net profit of 368.56 billion yuan. China Construction Bank followed closely with 338.91 billion yuan, staying in second place. Agricultural Bank of China and Bank of China both remained steady in the “two-trillion-yuan club,” achieving attributable-to-shareholders net profit of 291.04 billion yuan and 243.02 billion yuan, respectively. Bank of Communications and Postal Savings Bank of China recorded attributable-to-shareholders net profit of 95.62 billion yuan and 87.40 billion yuan, respectively, with profitability steadily climbing.

In terms of growth rates, the six banks show differentiated trends. Among them, Bank of China led the six banks with a year-on-year revenue growth rate of 4.48%, becoming the “front runner” in revenue growth; Agricultural Bank of China’s year-on-year growth rate of attributable-to-shareholders net profit reached 3.18%, ranking first among the six banks.

Regarding the “positive development trend” exhibited by the overall development of the six state-owned banks for FY 2025—namely “steady growth in scale, favorable profitability, and improving quality”—Wang Hongying, president of China (Hong Kong) Financial Derivatives Investment Research Institute, said in an analysis that in 2025 the domestic and international economic environment is complex and volatile. Against this backdrop, it is truly commendable that the six state-owned big banks achieved simultaneous positive growth in operating revenue and net profit. On the one hand, this fully reflects that the operating resilience of state-owned big banks during economic adjustment periods has been further strengthened, while also enabling them to proactively shoulder the responsibilities of major banks in countercyclical adjustments. On the other hand, facing pressure from economic adjustment, state-owned banks actively optimize their operating models and adopt diversified operating strategies; in a context where net interest margins narrow, they mitigate the impact brought by margin compression by expanding the scale of credit issuance. In addition, state-owned banks continue to advance innovation in comprehensive financial services, improving profit space through diversified services, and making notable progress in cost control and digital efficiency gains. With the help of more refined cost management, they further enhance overall returns and profitability.

Optimizing credit structure to offset pressure on net interest margins

Affected by factors such as the reduction in the loan market quoted rate (LPR), repricing of existing loans, and intensifying deposit competition, in 2025 all six state-owned banks’ net interest earnings (i.e., “net interest margin”) showed a downward trend.

Postal Savings Bank of China’s net interest margin was 1.66%, down 21 basis points year on year. China Construction Bank, Agricultural Bank of China, ICBC, and Bank of China’s net interest margins were 1.34%, 1.28%, 1.28%, and 1.26%, respectively—down 17 basis points, 14 basis points, 14 basis points, and 14 basis points year on year, respectively. Bank of Communications’ net interest margin was 1.20%, down 7 basis points year on year, with a relatively smaller decline.

As a core indicator of bank profitability, a downward trend in net interest margin raises higher requirements for a bank’s loan-disbursement pace and cost control. Regarding the net interest margin trend in 2026, multiple bank management teams also provided response measures at the earnings briefing. Sheng Liurong, Chief Financial Officer of China Construction Bank, said, “By strengthening effective proactive liability management, optimizing the structure of assets and liabilities, and improving tiered and classified customer pricing management, we can further tap into opportunities from both the asset side and the liability side, so that the extent of decline in net interest margin can be further narrowed.”

Liu Chenggang, vice president of Bank of China and secretary to the board of directors, said that in 2026 the expected year-on-year decline in net interest margin will narrow significantly, and net interest income is expected to achieve positive growth. To do so, one must: do well the fundamental “asset-liability” business and effectively control the decline in RMB interest margin; and do well the globalized service system to keep the overall foreign-currency business interest margin stable.

By aligning with the “five major initiatives” in financial services and the development of new-quality productive forces, rationally expanding the scale of loans and optimizing the credit structure can also, to a certain extent, offset the profitability pressure brought by the downward trend in net interest margin.

From the structure of incremental credit disbursements, ICBC’s total customer loans and advances reached 30.5 trillion yuan, up 7.5% year on year. Support in key areas such as the “five major initiatives” in finance continues to increase. Loans allocated to manufacturing, inclusive finance, and technology innovation grew by 19.4%, 22.8%, and 19.9%, respectively.

Agricultural Bank of China issued loans and advances totaling 27.13 trillion yuan, with an increase of 2.23 trillion yuan. Its county-level loans continued to grow faster than the bank-wide average. Loan balance was 10.9 trillion yuan, with a growth rate of 11.0%, and the balance accounted for 41.0% of domestic loan balances. Bank of China’s loans and advances totaled 23.45 trillion yuan; the bank allocated loans to manufacturing and manufacturing medium- and long-term loans, with balances of nearly 3.5 trillion yuan and 1.5 trillion yuan, respectively—2.4 times and 3.3 times the levels at the beginning of the “14th Five-Year Plan.”

China Construction Bank’s net amount of loans and advances was 26.93 trillion yuan, up 7.53%. Loan growth rates in key areas such as the “five major initiatives” in finance and manufacturing were higher than the average growth rates of all loans. Bank of Communications also mentioned in its annual report that it guided resources to concentrate in strategic sectors. Loans to technology, green initiatives, inclusive and small micro enterprises, the pension industry, and the core industries of the digital economy grew by 10.73%, 14.16%, 20.76%, 49.12%, and 14.46%, respectively.

As Gao Zhengyang, a special research fellow at Suzhou Shang Bank, said, as the deposit interest rate market-oriented adjustment mechanism continues to take effect and deposit interest rates are adjusted downward in parallel, the pressure from state-owned banks’ interest spread falling will ease at the margin. The industry’s net interest margin is expected to enter a relatively stable range. Next, to alleviate pressure on net interest margins, in terms of loan disbursement, directions such as high-end segments in manufacturing, technology-innovation enterprises, and green industries will receive strong support at the policy level. Benefiting from low-cost funding provided by structural monetary policy tools, and as banks’ bargaining power in these areas steadily improves, there is good upside potential for returns. At the same time, consumer loan pricing offers higher flexibility; under the premise of controllable risk, and with support measures such as policy interest subsidies layered on top, there is also considerable room for returns. Areas that receive policy dividends have room for growth in returns; however, banks still need to continuously improve their capabilities in refined pricing and risk identification to stabilize overall return levels.

Total dividends exceed 420 billion yuan

Regarding shareholder returns, on the basis of steady and growing profitability, the six banks have continued to increase the intensity of dividend payouts, becoming a “high-dividend” benchmark in capital markets.

In 2025, the six banks’ total annual dividends exceeded 420 billion yuan. ICBC is expected to pay 110.593 billion yuan in dividends for the full year, China Construction Bank 101.684 billion yuan, and Agricultural Bank of China, Bank of China, Bank of Communications, and Postal Savings Bank of China 87.321 billion yuan, 72.917 billion yuan, 28.692 billion yuan, and 26.217 billion yuan, respectively. The dividend payout ratios of the six banks are all steady at 30% or above of attributable-to-shareholders net profit.

When discussing capital planning and dividend arrangements going forward, Liu Jun, president of ICBC, said, “We will further scientifically quantify capital planning, so that ICBC’s capital planning becomes annual rolling, dynamic capital planning, enabling the highly integrated alignment of capital usage, capital raising, and the replenishment of both internal and external capital. For dividend arrangements, we will closely monitor changes and demands in the capital market and respond to everyone’s needs and voices.”

Zhang Baojiang, president of Bank of Communications, said in response to market concerns, “Bank of Communications’ total dividend amount for 2025 increased by nearly 2% compared with 2024. This is mainly due to steady progress in business development and overall improved performance. Sustained positive growth in net profit increased the amount of distributable profit. In 2026, Bank of Communications is confident it can continue to repay shareholders with good performance and stable dividends.”

The stable execution of dividends cannot be separated from solid capital support. In late March 2025, Bank of China, China Construction Bank, Bank of Communications, and Postal Savings Bank of China disclosed plans for private placement to raise funds, intending to issue A-share stocks to specific entities including the Ministry of Finance to raise no more than 165 billion yuan, 105 billion yuan, 120 billion yuan, and 130 billion yuan, respectively. The combined fundraising scale totaled 520 billion yuan, of which the Ministry of Finance contributed 500 billion yuan, and then the aforementioned private placement matters were carried out in full.

The 2026 Government Work Report once again released signals, clearly proposing the issuance of 300 billion yuan of special government bonds to support state-owned large banks in replenishing capital.

“Against the backdrop of explicit policy support for state-owned big banks to replenish capital, continued implementation of measures such as fiscal injections and special government bonds will effectively ease capital constraints for state-owned big banks, providing them with more buffer space for expanding credit scale and handling risk resolution.” Gao Zhengyang further noted that the increase in capital adequacy ratios lays the foundation for stabilizing—and potentially modestly increasing—the dividend payout ratio of major banks. At the same time, under the policy advocacy for enhancing shareholder returns, it is expected that the dividends of state-owned big banks will continue at a steady pace, emphasizing the principle of sustainability. State-owned big banks may coordinate capital planning in a more refined way. On the one hand, by improving ROE and optimizing the structure of risk-weighted assets to enhance their endogenous capital replenishment capability; on the other hand, while meeting regulatory requirements and ensuring credit disbursement to the real economy, they will maintain a steady dividend level to balance shareholder returns and needs for long-term development.

Running out with AI momentum

Behind the steady improvement in performance, deepening digital transformation has also become a core driving force for commercial banks. In particular, the accelerated rollout of artificial intelligence (AI) applications has been especially notable. With the rapid iteration and widespread adoption of AI technologies, commercial banks’ “AI+” strategic deployment has continued to deepen. In their FY 2025 annual reports, all six state-owned banks highlighted the progress of AI technology applications, embedding AI capabilities deeply into the end-to-end business process.

In its annual report, ICBC disclosed that the bank innovatively implemented the “Navigator AI+” initiative, rolling out more than 500 AI applications across more than 30 business areas; AI digital employees承担工作量—equivalent workload of 55,000 person-years per year. At the same time, the bank keeps pace with technological development and, based on ICBC’s Zhiyong, explored and established a “one flagship and multiple specialties” intelligent agent collaboration system. ICBC said it will align with trends in technological change, seize opportunities brought by “artificial intelligence+,” continuously enhance the driving force of digital intelligence, and deepen the digital and intelligent transformation of business management and risk governance.

At the FY 2025 earnings briefing, Wang Zhiheng, president of Agricultural Bank of China, said that the bank is firmly seizing the wave of AI technology development. It has set up a dedicated office for building smart banking and has increased efforts to coordinate and advance smart banking initiatives. It has also clarified that it will use intelligent agent applications as a starting point and project needs as a driver, continuing to improve its “AI+” capability system, focusing on promoting intelligent and inclusive AI applications.

When discussing risk control measures, Lin Li, vice president of Agricultural Bank of China, also said that the bank currently strengthens technology enablement, expands new risk-control capabilities, and has introduced Agricultural Bank of China’s version of “lobster.” Lin said directly, “This isn’t about chasing trends. We are using this tool to automatically process and analyze data, and to generate intelligent due diligence reports, making loan processing more convenient, more efficient, and also safer.”

Overall, AI applications in the banking industry have entered an acceleration phase. Bank of China’s annual report shows that in 2025 the bank, based on three major platforms—computing power, technology, and data—established two governance mechanisms empowered by AI that are agile, efficient, safe, and reliable. It built six typical application paradigms, including intelligent Q&A and report generation, through BOCAI model capability platform deployments; it deployed a series of large models such as DeepSeek and Qwen3, and built more than 400 intelligent assistants to achieve deep empowerment in key areas such as credit, marketing, operations, office work, customer service, and technology. At the earnings briefing, the bank’s president Zhang Hui said the next step is to further build an “AI+” financial ecosystem. China Construction Bank is also systematically advancing the building of AI applications; related technologies have already been scaled to empower 398 group scenario applications, deeply penetrating key areas such as wealth management, inclusive finance, risk management, and technology R&D.

In response, Gao Zhengyang said that the accelerated推进“AI+ business” deep integration by state-owned big banks signals that the banking industry is quickly making a deep shift toward intelligence. He pointed out that, from a trend perspective, AI is gradually being embedded into core business segments such as credit approval, wealth management, operations management, risk control, and marketing, greatly improving business operational efficiency and decision accuracy. This transformation is expected to reshape financial service models, making them more personalized, real-time, and scenario-based, while also effectively lowering marginal service costs. From an ecosystem-building perspective, cooperation between banks and technology companies and industrial platforms is likely to become even closer. Financial services will be embedded more deeply into the industrial chains of the real economy, gradually forming a new ecosystem of finance, technology, and industry.

Beijing Business Daily reporter Song Yitong, Zhou Yili