March cold river crossing, April new willow colors

The Wind of March, the Road of April[Taoguba]
The stock market in March was like a late-spring chill.
The index fell, individual stocks fell, and my account shrank quietly, without a sound. Someone said the problem isn’t swimming skill, but choosing a cesspit for butterfly strokes. Clumsy as it is, the logic is sound—March is indeed a hell-level challenge.
But when you look back, while the whole world is falling, we somehow count as the one that’s holding up better. The central bank says, money won’t be tight, and the market needs to be stable. High-speed rail is up, rockets are up, and locomotives even took the crown—when it has dropped enough, it will ultimately be good news.
April is here. Qingming is coming soon, and according to past custom, the market won’t let people be happy as they pay respects to their ancestors. Then wait a bit: the Lord must not get angry and send troops. Risk control is the fallback clause—staying steady matters more than charging in hard.
The wind of March has passed; the road of April slowly unfolds.
【Market Recap】

1. Recalling March
   March overall was a painful transition period between old and new main themes.
   Early popular themes like AI and energy have entered a pullback phase. Funds have clearly shifted toward low-valuation, high-dividend directions, with bank stocks being a typical example.
   Some themes popped up in the middle as well, such as high-speed rail and commercial space, but basically they were all event-driven. The sector capacity was small, and it couldn’t lift overall sentiment.
   On the index level, the Shanghai Composite is still repeatedly grinding its base, while the ChiNext Index is already approaching a key support level. The overall money-making effect was rather poor—especially in the second half of the month, the loss-making effect noticeably intensified.
2. Looking Ahead to April
   As we enter April, there are a few variables to keep an eye on:
   First, earnings reports will be released in dense waves—there are definitely bound to be performance “disasters”;
   Second, the meeting’s policy tone from the Political Bureau matters, as it affects how policies will be pushed next; and third, external conditions—especially changes in geopolitics and the trade environment.
   With these factors stacked together, risk appetite will most likely remain suppressed. At this time, don’t think about going all in to get back to even—the more anxious you are, the easier it is to get into trouble. Risk control comes first; protecting principal is stronger than anything else.
3. Opportunity Directions
   It’s not that there are no opportunities. The policy floor is still there, and the central bank is also calling for “maintaining stability in financial markets.” The liquidity environment is friendly. The key is to see when funds will form a new consensus.
   In terms of direction, three lines are worth tracking:
   First is “breakthroughs in hard technology,” such as commercial space and high-end equipment—supported by industrial trends;
   Second is dividend-style assets—high-dividend names like banks and power. In a low interest-rate environment, their allocation value still holds;
   Third is the transmission of inflation—within cyclical industries and the consumption sector, some sub-segments may gradually come to the front.
   But all of these require time for verification. They can’t be rushed.
4. Long-Term Perspective
   From Zhang Xue’s locomotive taking the crown, to the IPO acceleration of commercial space companies, you can feel that China’s manufacturing industry is truly moving upward—from the stage of “can it be made?” to the stage of “can it reach the top level?”
   The capital market is also cooperating with this direction. Supporting technological innovation and industrial upgrading has an explicit functional positioning.
   No matter how much the market shakes in the short term, this long-term logic won’t change. For individuals, the key is to stay steady amid volatility and not let emotions lead you off course.

【Final Words】
March is over—good and bad have all been left behind.
Early April is the time of Qingming. It’s suitable for quiet, suitable for waiting. The market has its own rhythm: you can’t rush it, and you can’t avoid it. What we can do is only to guard our own principal and wait for that right moment.
When the spring breeze passes, it will always bring something along.