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I just reviewed a retrospective of recent trading days — the picture is interesting but complex. The market is experiencing serious turbulence, and it's not for nothing.
Let's start with what happened to the precious metals. After a historic plunge, gold and silver sharply reversed upward, although CME immediately increased margin requirements. This is a classic scenario: decline, then recovery. Bank of America analysts believe that something more serious is needed to complete a bullish cycle for gold, and Goldman Sachs is already forecasting a price up to $4,900. Keep a close eye on this asset.
On the political front, Trump nominated Kevin Waugh for the Fed Chair position. Waugh's stance on reducing the Fed's balance sheet is in clear contradiction with Trump's desire to lower borrowing costs — this creates uncertainty in the market. The Senate approved the $1.2 trillion spending bill, but due to the House schedule, a short-term government shutdown is inevitable.
Regarding the crypto market — here, the retrospective shows a mixed picture. BTC temporarily dropped below 76K, and is now trading around 66,640. ETH fell to $2,221 but recently recovered to $2,060. The total crypto market capitalization grew to $2.69 trillion, but the trend remains downward. Long positions worth $358 million were liquidated, with total liquidations at $493 million — this is serious pressure.
The stock market also declined: Dow Jones -0.36%, S&P 500 -0.43%, Nasdaq -0.94%. Most tech stocks are under pressure, but Tesla rose 3.32% against the trend — rumors of a possible merger with SpaceX and xAI are circulating. SanDisk impressed with its results, margins increased to 65-67%, Bernstein raised the target price to $1,000.
Oracle is attracting $45-50 billion to expand its cloud infrastructure — a significant move amid growing demand for cloud services. Waymo is raising $16 billion with an estimated valuation of $110 billion — robotaxis are becoming increasingly competitive.
Oil continues to fall due to oversupply — WTI averaging $59. The dollar remains strong thanks to Fed news.
Overall: volatility, liquidations, political uncertainty. But the main drivers haven't changed. Be more cautious with leverage and geopolitical risks. Large token unlockings are expected this week — keep an eye on that.