Liquor companies proactively squeeze the bubbles: Baijiu bids farewell to the era of hard currency

Sina Finance’s “Liquor Price Insider” launches in a big way—real market prices of well-known baijiu are now in hand

When you trade stocks, look to Jinqilin analysts’ research reports—authoritative, professional, timely, and comprehensive—helping you uncover potential theme opportunities!

Source: Beijing Business Daily

From leading enterprises to regional liquor companies, news that the pricing framework is loosening has been circulating one after another in the market. On March 24, Beijing Business Daily reporters found that, at present, top companies such as Kweichow Moutai, Langjiu, and Xijiu have all lowered or adjusted ex-factory prices by directly cutting prices or adjusting distributor policies, among other measures. This round of passive price pullbacks is not just simple market fluctuation, but an inevitable result of a deep reshaping of supply and demand. When channel inventory runs high and consumer demand weakens, and when “stockpiling-driven growth” reaches its end, after bubbles are squeezed out and speculation cools off—how should the baijiu industry pay for true value?

“Hidden price cuts” to ex-factory prices

This round of price fluctuations is not carried out through only one method of price reduction; it is more often implemented in forms such as “subsidies,” “discounts,” and “adjustments to invoiced prices.”

Beijing Business Daily reporters compiled the following: At Langjiu’s national distributor conference, the general manager of the Honghualang company, Yang Fei, announced a price adjustment for Honghualang · 15. The ex-factory price would be lowered from 489 yuan per bottle to 439 yuan per bottle, and the suggested retail price would be lowered from 699 yuan per bottle to 599 yuan per bottle. This price framework has been in effect since March 6. In response, Yang Fei said that the price adjustment is to maintain market competitiveness and ensure merchants and channels’ profits. The company will make up the difference for distributors’ physical inventory, with a standard of 50 yuan per bottle.

Guizhou Moutai has also rolled out a “direct price cut.” In January 2026, Moutai, to adapt to the market, proactively lowered the ex-factory prices of multiple main products. Among them, the ex-factory price of Premium Moutai was lowered from 2,969 yuan per bottle to 1,859 yuan per bottle, a decrease of 37%; the ex-factory price of Moutai 15 Years was lowered from 5,399 yuan per bottle to 3,409 yuan per bottle, a decrease of 36.8%. Previously, the market also reported that the planned ex-factory price for the 43-degree Feitian Moutai within the plan might be adjusted from 798 yuan per bottle to 739 yuan per bottle, a decrease of 7.4%.

Unlike the approaches directly facing price fluctuations taken by Moutai and Langjiu, another leading enterprise’s pricing strategy is described as more “respectable.” According to reports, with a “bundle-gift” policy added on top of the purchase-with-goods promotions under Xijiu’s Junpin Xijiu line, distributors’ procurement cost may fall to less than 700 yuan per bottle. Specifically, Junpin Xijiu buys 25 bottles and gets 8 bottles as gifts, for a gift ratio of 32%. In addition, Xijiu also provides additional awards based on distributors’ performance in sell-through (movements), and issues about 2 percentage points of year-end sales rewards combining dimensions such as sales and off-site QR-code scans, as well as, for the Spring Festival period, an additional “bundle-gift” policy.

Liou Zhuaqing, an expert in liquor marketing, said that current price adjustments by leading liquor enterprises are not simply price cuts; rather, they convert the “expense and subsidy” previously given to distributors into “price concessions.” This is a very pragmatic decision. Behind it, not only can it ease channel pressure, improve distributors’ cash flow, and speed up inventory turnover, but it also helps companies optimize their tax base—assisting distributors in putting more effort into competing for consumer scenarios, improving the C-end experience, and the like.

Squeezing out the bubble

Whether it is directly adjusting the ex-factory price system or rolling out related policies to relieve distributor pressure, what lies behind it is that liquor companies are proactively squeezing the bubble after experiencing “stockpiling-driven growth.”

Over the past few years, under expectations of high performance growth, liquor companies have continued to push stockpiling through channels, creating enormous inventory pressure. When in 2025 consumer demand weakened and sell-through at the end slowed down, distributors were forced to dispose of inventory at low prices to relieve funding pressure, which directly led to an inversion of prices.

Zhan Junhao, a strategic positioning expert and founder of Fujian Huace Brand Positioning Consulting, believes that the industry has long relied on “stockpiling-driven growth.” For performance, liquor companies keep pushing inventory into channels, forming false prosperity. In addition, some liquor companies’ pricing strategies are detached from real market demand, lacking differentiated value support, which is also an important reason behind the price inversion.

“Stockpiling-driven growth” is a high-stakes gamble between liquor companies and channels. This “false prosperity” built by relying on channels to hoard inventory will ultimately have to withstand real market testing.

Data from the National Bureau of Statistics shows that in 2025, China’s baijiu (65-degree equivalent, by goods volume) cumulative production was 3.549 billion liters, down 12.1% year over year. It is worth noting that the “2025 China Baijiu Market Mid-Term Research Report” shows that in the first half of 2025, among feedback from distributors and retailers, the three price bands with the most severe price inversion were 800–1,500 yuan, 500–800 yuan, and 300–500 yuan, respectively. This inventory pressure is directly reflected in industry sell-through. Data from the China Alcoholic Drinks Association shows that in the first half of 2025, the average inventory turnover days for the baijiu industry had reached 900 days, up 10% year over year.

Cai Xuefei, an expert in the liquor industry and general manager of Zhiku Marketing, said that supply and demand relationships determine prices. Price fluctuations are closely tied to market expectations. The root cause of widespread price inversion for well-known brands lies in structural imbalances between supply and demand. In the early stages, liquor companies expanded production and pushed inventory into channels, resulting in high channel inventory. At the same time, consumption-side digestion capacity is insufficient due to the contraction of business demand, changes in drinking habits among younger generations, and consumption becoming more rational. Distributors, to recoup cash, are forced to dump inventory at low prices, and combined with the impact of e-commerce, this comprehensively results in the current price inversion.

Reshaping the landscape

Fluctuations in ex-factory prices are seen as a “forced” correction to the industry’s business model. At the same time, the industry will also move from “controlling volume to protect prices” to “cutting prices to protect volume,” meaning the baijiu industry is reshaping its competitive landscape and survival rules.

A Beijing liquor distributor said: “In recent years, poor sell-through has led to serious problems with product stockpiling. This is very unfriendly for channel partners. Many channel partners, because they need to quickly recoup capital, compress their profit margins and sell at lower prices. This time, leading liquor enterprises take the lead in lowering ex-factory prices, which can open up more profit space for channel partners. It can be said to be an important measure for manufacturers and distributors to work together through a critical period.”

Cai Xuefei said plainly that this round of price adjustments is one of the important ways to restore value for well-known baijiu in the market and to repair channels. Through various means of price adjustment, the industry squeezes out the price bubble that has been built up over the long term, bringing ex-factory prices closer to real market transaction prices. It gives distributors room to survive, using short-term profits in exchange for channel health and market share.

As the industry gradually transitions from a “controlling volume to protect prices” pattern to a “controlling prices to protect volume” pattern, adjusting prices is only the first step to boost sell-through. A Beijing baijiu distributor said: “Although by directly lowering ex-factory prices or relevant policies we can secure more profit for our channel partners, controlling prices by price signals is only a start. If we want channels to operate in a healthy, virtuous cycle, we still need to start from real consumption—to increase the bottle-opening rate. Only then can we fundamentally solve problems such as current inventory stockpiling and poor sell-through.”

In fact, adjusting prices is just one of the measures liquor companies have used in recent years to boost sell-through. At present, to boost sell-through, baijiu companies not only tap into consumer scenarios, but also deeply develop the banquet market to discover demand for mid-end liquor products. Meanwhile, they also improve the bottle-opening rate of consumers through marketing methods. Cai Xuefei believes that to achieve stable terminal prices for well-known brands, an integrated strategy that combines “supply control” and “demand activation” is needed: proactively control market supply, conduct strong efforts to rectify chaos in channels, and drive a transition of development models, shifting the focus of marketing from relying on channel stockpiling to improving the real “bottle-opening rate.”

Beijing Business Daily reporters Liu Yibo and Feng Ruonan / Written and photographed

		Sina Statement: This news was reprinted from a partner media outlet. Sina.com published this article for the purpose of transmitting more information, and does not mean that it agrees with or verifies the viewpoints described. The article content is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. Investors act on this at their own risk.

Millions of updates and precise analysis—right in the Sina Finance APP

Editor: Gao Jia