So been watching AUD/USD pretty closely with this hawkish RBA narrative still in play. They're talking about potential rate hikes in 2026 and the market is pricing in about 29% odds for the February meeting, which honestly keeps the Aussie supported even after that recent dollar bounce.



The thing is, tomorrow's employment data could shake things up. Yeah, the RBA is more focused on next week's inflation report, but a soft jobs number would hit the AUD pretty hard given how hawkish everyone's positioned right now. If we get a hot print though, that should keep supporting the currency through these hawkish expectations.

On the technicals, I'm watching the 0.6665 zone as key support - price bounced nicely from there and wiped out January's dollar gains pretty quick. If we hold above 0.6725 on the hourly, buyers have a decent risk-reward setup for a push higher. Break below though and we're looking at a potential drop back to 0.6665 or even 0.6600.

Trump's Davos speech today might throw a wrench in things with all the Greenland noise, but for now the hawkish AUD story seems to be the main driver. Just keeping an eye on those employment numbers tomorrow - that's the real test for whether this currency can hold its gains.
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