In March, the national carbon market prices remained stable with steady volume; April's CEA price index is expected to rise across the board.

Source: Securities Times Online | Author: Zhang Shuxian

Fudan University’s Research Center for Sustainable Development (hereinafter referred to as the “Research Center”) recently released the April 2026 Fudan carbon price index, showing that the price indices for April’s national carbon emission allowances (CEA) and China Certified Voluntary Emission Reductions (CCER) are expected to rise across the board. Among them, the expected purchase price for April CEA is 77.09 yuan/ton, the expected selling price is 83.50 yuan/ton, and the middle price is 80.30 yuan/ton. The purchase price index is 192.73, up 3.16%; the selling price index is 188.40, up 0.81%; and the middle price index is 190.46, up 10.33%.

The Research Center also summarized the operation of the national carbon market in March. In terms of price, the monthly average daily closing price of this month’s CEA was 81.04 yuan/ton, up slightly by about 1.64% compared with February’s average daily closing price of 79.73 yuan/ton. Overall, this month’s carbon price showed the characteristics of range-bound trading in a high-price area. In the first half of the month, prices fluctuated mildly between 80.5 and 83.2 yuan/ton. In mid-month, prices were briefly pushed up to 82.45 yuan/ton. In the second half, the price center of gravity shifted slightly downward to the 79.5 to 81.95 yuan/ton range. Overall, the fluctuation range narrowed compared with the previous month, and the daily gain/loss range did not exceed 5%, indicating that market sentiment is stabilizing.

In terms of trading volume, this month’s average daily trading volume for CEA was 2.643 million tons, up about 6.1% from February’s 2.491 million tons. Although the overall trading scale remains at a low level, there was a period of consecutive volume expansion in mid-month. From March 10 to 16, the trading volume remained between 4.2 and 6.3 million tons for five consecutive days, forming this month’s trading peak, reflecting that some companies made allowance adjustments or strategic positioning during periods of price volatility.

The Research Center said that, on the whole, the national carbon market in the post-compliance period shows the characteristics of “price stability with trading volume staying flat.” The price center is steady with a slight upward trend, but trading activity still appears insufficient, and most market participants take a wait-and-see attitude.

(Editor: Wen Jing)

Keywords:

                                                            Carbon market