So Amazon just hit something we haven't seen in a while. The stock's down to $210 from $250 at the start of the year, and honestly, the selling has been relentless. That earnings miss combined with the AI spending forecast spooked everyone. But here's what caught my attention - the RSI has tanked below 30, which puts this into seriously oversold territory.

Now, stocks with RSI below 30 don't show up that often for a company like Amazon. But when they do? The history is pretty interesting. Last time this happened was April 2025, and the stock went on a 60% run from there. Before that, summer 2024 saw a similar setup, and guess what - another 60% rally followed. I'm not saying it's guaranteed to repeat, but the pattern is definitely there.

What makes this setup compelling is that the underlying business isn't broken. AWS is still growing solid, retail is humming along fine. The panic is really just about spending - investors got spooked by the capex guidance tied to AI infrastructure. One earnings miss by a few pennies shouldn't erase everything else Amazon's got going for it.

The analyst crowd hasn't budged either. Morgan Stanley, Wells Fargo, Argus - they're all throwing out $300+ price targets. That's roughly 40% upside from here. Not quite the 60% we saw from those prior oversold bounces, but close enough to be interesting.

That said, there are risks. If capex keeps ballooning without visible returns, or if the whole tech sector gets hit harder, just being oversold won't save the stock. Stocks with RSI below 30 can stay beaten down longer than you'd expect. Plus, the recent bounce attempts have been pretty weak - some buying on the lows, but no real follow-through.

Right now it's all about watching the tape. Tech is under pressure across the board, so don't expect some instant V-shaped recovery. But if the selling dries up and you start seeing real buyer interest come back in, things could get interesting fast. That's when you'd want to be paying attention to stocks with RSI below 30 like Amazon - historically, those setups have been worth the wait.