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Just noticed the soybean oil price really got a boost today. Bean oil futures jumped 102 to 129 points this morning after Treasury dropped that new 45Z tax credit guidance. Pretty interesting timing since there's been a lot of uncertainty around policy lately. The soybean oil price move is definitely the story here, pulling the whole complex higher.
Soybeans themselves climbed 4 to 5 and a half cents on Tuesday, with cash prices hitting $10.00 1/2 according to cmdtyView. But here's the thing - while bean oil was rallying hard, soymeal actually went the other way, dropping $1.40 to $2.60. That kind of divergence usually means something's shifting in how crushers are valuing the different products.
The USDA just put out their Fats & Oils report and the December crush came in lighter than expected at 229.84 million bushels. Still up 4.24% from November and 5.59% year-over-year, so the trend is solid. Year-to-date we're looking at 891.58 million bushels crushed since September, up 7.43% compared to last year. On the import side, the EU has brought in 7.29 million metric tons of soybeans from July through early February, which is actually down 1.33 million metric tons from the same period last year.
Closing prices show the strength across the board - March settled at $10.65 3/4, May finished at $10.77 1/4, and July ended at $10.90 1/2. All of them up 4 to 5 and a half cents. The soybean oil price strength seems to be the main driver here, especially with that tax credit news giving the market some direction.