$BTC Tomorrow is Good Friday, and the US stock market will be closed, so today is the last trading day of the week. The next opening will be on Monday. The biggest hope now is that Trump won’t cause any trouble over the weekend, but I think everything that can be done, has already been done. The next three weeks may still mainly be driven by the conflict involving Iran. Today is also quite strange—oil prices have been surging upward, but US stocks have actually rebounded, and they might even rise to close.

Although tomorrow is a holiday, the non-farm payroll data will still be released. Although the data isn’t very important, it will still have some impact on the market. Based on the forecast data, the unemployment rate will remain unchanged. Non-farm employment just needs to move from negative last month to positive. I don’t dare to think too much more than that. Although there is another interest-rate meeting at the end of the month, the probability of no change remains the highest. Many people worry that there will be a rate hike, but it still seems a bit early.

Recently, the war has been getting more and more intense. The price of US oil has even surged above 110 dollars. The Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea may both face restrictions. Previously, Trump said passage would be possible, but now it turns into the US not relying on the Strait of Hormuz—who depends on it should handle their own issues. That said, there’s nothing really wrong with that. Europe is holding a meeting today to discuss it. At the moment, Iran is restricting the US and Israel from passing; other ships should be able to pass if they pay. From this point of view, it’s not necessarily wrong for Trump to announce free passage through the Strait of Hormuz. I think Trump will probably regret this war and end up cursing about it. A situation that was originally quite good is now getting stuck at Iran—and there are still a whole bunch of other problems waiting for him afterward.

Turning back to the Bitcoin data, the turnover rate has increased a bit, but not by a lot. And investors’ sentiment is relatively relaxed. Although the price has fallen somewhat, there hasn’t been any obvious panic. Right now, the main selling is coming from short-term investors. Still, there are some investors gradually shifting into long-term investors. Unfortunately, liquidity really is too poor. The market’s overall sentiment is also being swayed by the war, so investors’ funds are still fairly cautious.