4.3 Qingming Festival: 4,000 stocks are flat. Did you listen to advice today and avoid a big drop?

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From now on, every stock you follow or unfollow will come with a logic breakdown. If you’re interested in learning, brothers can watch together with the morning wrap-up ideas. Once you learn the logic, you can slowly add your own understanding!**
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First is an overview of the market scene**

As usual, first take a look at the morning wrap-up ideas. Yesterday was pretty funny. When the Asia-Pacific market opened, some guy farted and blew up the stock market. The A-shares (A-Stock) immediately broke below the 10-day line intraday, and then rallied into the close. Then later in the evening, oil futures surged. But the old US came with a low open and high close—couldn’t really make sense of it. Satellite communications and optical communications both jumped. So when mapped to the A-shares, doesn’t it make you think today is another broad-based rise? But a reminder: the last trading day before the holiday—funds that went out on the withdrawal day won’t easily come back. In theory, it’s a low-volume market, and there shouldn’t be much of a wave. On the surface, there are only two possibilities for a breakout: the first is Tianjin Yaoye (Jin Yao). Yesterday’s medicine sector actually didn’t ferment strongly. This stock, in theory, is the three-board main leading one, so it locked up tightly and stopped the old favorite Hengdan. Another one is Xinghui Huancai. The logic is chemical price increases—an elasticity play. In theory, with oil futures surging yesterday (a big涨), it should be a favorable for chemicals price-increase, so it hit the limit-up and saw unusual trading, and there’s also a chance to break the pattern.
But note one thing: yesterday’s intraday performance in oil and gas wasn’t strong, or you can say big funds weren’t doing this anymore. Oil futures were up that much at night, and at the open even Bekken (Beiken) wasn’t the biggest order—so that’s a problem. So if oil and gas is weak, the corresponding ones are power and chemicals. Chemicals are a derivative of oil’s price rise; power is about energy substitution. So when oil-and-gas bidding isn’t strong, for the three three-board names—how likely are they to advance?
But recently, there’s a phenomenon: the “youzi” (retail/whale-type traders) have started working—individual-stock premiums are beginning to rise. For example, Tongda’s first board: Tu Wenbin dominated it alone; the next day it had a huge high open, ultimately locked up hard; today it again opened high and second-by-second hit the board. For those who trusted the “youzi” yesterday, today is easy money and you can just take profit and leave.
Another example: Xinneng Taishan. Yesterday Foshan dominated; today the bidding was also weak-to-strong, and it ultimately advanced.
So here, is the signal saying the “youzi” are building a profitable effect? That means you should trust them early. Overall, in these two days, the sector effect isn’t strong, because it’s close to the holiday—funds are eager to realize gains, so they definitely won’t launch sector-wide attacks. But for the “basket/holding-group” plays, overall it’s still pretty good: for example, Xin DuoDuo’s holding-group, the institutions’ holding-group in Changfei Optical Fiber, and Tu Wenbin and Foshan also count as starting to show an effect—watch this part later.
As the holiday gets closer, the most important reminder is to control risk and manage position sizing. Many people see the US market low open and high close and think the A-shares are stable—but the A-shares are still the A-shares. Even with Japan and Korea opening high for repair, the A-shares still came with another broad sell-off and drop. Hope everyone stays safe.

On emotions: mainly it depends on whether Jin Yao’s opening height holds, or whether Xinghui’s opening height holds. Actually today Xinghui hit the board, which feels like it was suppressing Jin Yao—after all, a limit-up today would be an eight-board height. But oil and gas is indeed weak; if Bekken had been the biggest bid order in the bidding, or at least locked up at the open, then Xinghui today blocking Jin Yao would be more likely. Too bad there’s no “if.” Xinghui didn’t pull it off; it was still affected by the sector.
Here I want to complain: Zhongyou Capital added orders continuously in the bidding, piling up to a 3-billion-yuan (3 billion) buy order lock. Yet when the sector opened, the quant model didn’t recognize it at all—there’s quite a bit of preferential treatment differences. In the past, when it’s the biggest bid order in the opening call auction, it’s supposed to be respected to some extent.

Five to six: Today Jin Yao is very strong—standard industrial-chain pattern. It opened near the limit-up and forced stubborn buyers into it. Yesterday, the sector actually fermented weakly, and before the open there was also negative news. So opening near the limit-up, I guess many people didn’t dare to compete in bidding for a buy. But from the perspective of Hengdan: if it truly was “three,” and it locked up, it wouldn’t break and explode.
During the day, brothers said “Mei Ji is gone,” so after the holiday, still be careful. Even though Mei Ji only has 20,000 in value, the title of “dragon-slayer” has basically never been wrong.

Three to four: This batch was the most精彩 (most exciting) today. Every stock touched the board, but here they’re all mid-tier names. Old fans know: mid-tier doesn’t take over—especially on the day when high markers are渡劫 (tested).
Today Jin Yao challenged the highest marker before the holiday. Emotion-wise, it definitely had an impact. The result: Tongda finally抢到弱转强 in the bidding, then秒板 at the open. When it turned out Jin Yao didn’t jump, it instantly got smashed open. When it was smashed, Xin Zhonggang pulled the board; in the end, both of those stocks fell back together.
Xinghui Huancai opened with high-handed strength. It managed to lock up twice midstream, and each time it got smashed open.
Overall, for these three stocks: if you entered them yesterday, there was no big problem. It was just game theory—who says Jin Yao is guaranteed to never be cut?
If you enter today, it’s more like找死 (suicidal). Jin Yao stepped aside—yet you went to gamble a mid-tier breakthrough through. Can you even say the emotions are that good now? Jin Yao locked up at the open—then you hit the mid-tier. It sounds like, at least right now, the emotions aren’t that favorable.

Two to three: This batch was already said yesterday: the node wasn’t right. Bei Da Yi Yao ate the energy from Chong Yao yesterday; today it made way. It feels consistent logically—if it didn’t make way all the time, Chong Yao’s expectation would also have to be lowered. For Yi Bai Pharmaceutical, there’s no need to say more: yesterday, any variety that couldn’t handle pressure got rewarded with a run-up.
Overall, the medicine sector’s money-making effect today is still okay. Those that hit limit-up yesterday all gave you a chance to chase gains today, with decent premium.

One to two: This batch also has a very low advance rate today. For Chong Yao, it imitated Hua Dian Lianeng: after the one-character board, it opened with a small high open and then pulled into a board. During the day, Chongqing Luqiao even gave an assist.
For Huiyuan Communication, it opened high. Changfei opened high too. Its bidding added orders—this might be the optical communications “tool-man” play. In the US market, optical communications surged big. The expectation was that Huiyuan Communication’s bidding would be a big order—but in the end it was play-by-adding orders. Still, it also showed the oil-and-gas performance wasn’t good.
Xinneng Taishan is relatively more beyond expectations. Yesterday Foshan absorbed the selling pressure strongly, and near the close it almost couldn’t hold the board. Today it directly flipped from weak to strong, opened high, and did the same weak-to-strong. Tongda’s “weak-to-strong” was much faster—Tou Wenbin’s—but it got smashed to death. Instead, Xinneng Taishan, which was basically the “refuting rumor” type, moved painfully, and only at the end it locked up.
About the “youzi” premium: it was mentioned already—you need the “youzi”’s pattern and maintenance. If you don’t maintain your own stock, the next day’s premium will be low, and the market naturally won’t want to pick it up. Like last year, Chen Xiaoqn (陈小群)—wasn’t it only after Aerospace Development (航天发展) showed a money-making effect that Luxin Venture Capital (鲁信创投) came out to take the one-character board?

Finally, take a look at today’s thinking. For Jin Yao: the original expectation was a turnover (an increase in shares/rotation). Yesterday’s fermentation wasn’t very strong. But the industrial-chain logic really understands human nature: it opened right near the limit-up, forcing stubborn buyers to go all-in. If you want to buy, you must be stubborn; otherwise, if it’s locked up, it won’t give you a chance.
On Wednesday, the whole market had a huge high open, which caused Jin Yao’s “planned one-character board” not to open as expected. It went with a “T” move. So today Jin Yao has to pay attention to the broader market: since Japan and Korea were both opening high for repair before the market, it’s not hard to expect the broader market to open high.
The result: the broader market opens a bit high, then immediately sells off. That’s probably Jin Yao’s confidence—after all, medicine has a safe-haven attribute.

For the three-to-four batch: these stocks all have their own features, but also have flaws.
For Tongda: the Tu Wenbin concept. It locked shares (locked up positions) yesterday; today it did weak-to-strong. But if you didn’t take it as the first hand, today you probably坑了后手 (lured the late-chasers). Next week, if it can’t rebound and do a back-flag repair, the reputation of the seats will likely get bad.
For Xin Zhonggang: it has excellent share structure, but it carries bonds. So when you see it pull, it’s basically a bond-arbitrage play—just do the bond trade. Don’t take the risk of going into the common stock.
For Xinghui: today’s advance is the eight-board height on the main board, while Jin Yao is only six boards. That’s a “cleanly kill it” situation. Too bad oil and gas wasn’t being done—so the chemical side with price-increase logic was naturally “like that.”
For the two-to-three setup: if Jin Yao isn’t letting, it’s hard for the other side to break away. So in the scenario where Jin Yao seconds-board and locks at the open, the two-to-three side is something you shouldn’t even look at.

For one-to-two: for the Jin Yao breakthrough node, Jin Yao continues to advance. When a node is conquered, it follows the advance—so Chong Yao is basically perfectly in line. In the auction, Jimin (济民) showed up and opened low directly, basically by stepping aside. Chong Yao went with a small high open and 秒板. Here, Bei Da’s (Beida) coordination also matters a lot. If Bei Da presses and stays ahead of Chongqing, Chong Yao would still feel uncomfortable. But Bei Da is also quite sensible: it picked up a board yesterday, and today it made way.

Next, take a look at the bidding information extraction. The biggest order opened as Zhongyou Capital. Then when you noticed that in the auction there was basically nobody topping that big order with a one-character board, it shows holiday-before trading was pretty dismal. Times New Material (时代新材) is lithium battery—second biggest order. Bekken Energy is oil—third biggest order. But note: yesterday oil futures surged and closed at a new high. In that kind of scenario, if Bekken didn’t have the biggest bid in the auction, it indicates there’s no strong intent to lay out positioning.
Jin Yao Pharmaceutical and Chong Yao Holding’s orders in the queue are after that—naturally representing innovative drugs. After looking around, I found that in technology names there weren’t really any huge one-character boards; most were risk-avoidance plays. So it’s very clear: the broad market won’t be good today.
Then you notice Zhongyou Capital added orders, and it kept adding. Over by the Strait of Hormuz, the ships that were allowed to pass began using RMB settlement—meaning expectations are being fulfilled.
In the auction, setups like Sifang Jingchuang (四方精创) and Lakala (拉卡拉) could have been considered if they opened up by a percentage point—there’s some value. But as Zhongyou Capital kept adding orders, these names also rose with it, pushing the price higher. I’ve played this kind of thing before across-border payment—where I bid during the auction by hanging the limit-up buy, and then it opened too high and ran low. So this time, I’m absolutely not falling for it.
Here, since Zhongyou Capital kept adding orders, the first reaction is “protect the market.” But then you find Bekken Energy’s order isn’t big—so it doesn’t seem necessary to protect. For example, when oil-and-gas rose and the broad market crashed hard, then pulling Zhongyou Capital out to protect makes more sense.
Shandong Haihua (山东海化) is about bromine-so solution price increases—there were premarket news—yet the order still isn’t big. In the end, it was Suli (苏利) that got done, not Haihua. That shows the one they wanted is still bond arbitrage.
Before 920, I saw Zhongyou was still adding orders. Then it felt like everyone was topping that, while others weren’t topping at all—it was kind of funny. Still, it managed to break the board. That was really “useless.”

After 920, I looked at the medicine sector’s divergence—not small. First: there wasn’t any one-character board topped by the biggest order. Second: some low-recognition names like Wanbangda (万邦达), Menoyao (美诺华), and Lianhuan Pharmaceutical (联环药业) all opened very low.
Bekken added orders later—this is definitely not right. Remember: in situations with favorable news, it should be a “big good” and the bidding should naturally show in the biggest order. Adding orders is easy to骗 (mislead).
In bidding, the only big one-character boards you can see are RMB settlement and oil. That suggests the market may drop. But there’s also “market protection.”
On 925, Cuiwei scrambled for the limit-up—clearly a quant behavior, arbitraging Zhongyou—result: Zhongyou itself exploded.
The instant I saw Tongda, my eyes lit up. The bidding was originally green, but in the end it got抢到 (grabbed) a high open—up five? This stock was yesterday’s “stubborn head-on” entry; today the premium was clearly given enough.
So what you need to think about later is: opportunities lie in ambiguity and in game theory—whereas something like today’s “weak-to-strong that’s clearly marked” is easier to trick.
Of course, if oil isn’t done, power naturally won’t have expectations either. This is also related to yesterday’s two Hua Dian stocks that kept dropping without stopping. At this point, the power sector should have no tricks left.

After 925, the weak-to-strong signals are two: Xinneng Taishan and Foshan, plus Tongda shares (通达股份) and Tu Wenbin (屠文斌). Both are youzi stocks, and both are about cables. Here, the first reaction is “electricity should cause trouble.” But when I checked oil-and-gas, and then checked the two Hua Dian names, it still felt weaker.
Jin Yao says it’s about being more stubborn. It opened near the limit-up and forced stubbornness—similar to turnover on the board. It doesn’t matter whether it gets smashed or not.
So when Jin Yao locked up (highest board) and the mid-tier below becomes the “knife block,” Xin Zhonggang and Tongda followed the same intraday weak-to-strong time-share like yesterday—and both got “blasted in the head.”
Same script: if you went yesterday, it’s for the brave. If you go today, it’s late-to-understand.
Soon after the open, the broad market was high open and then low and down. I’m a big account and I’m awesome—after all these years, the A-shares still don’t disappoint. Even with offshore repair, we still drop if we’re supposed to.
I checked the trading volume: good heavens, at the open 1.6T was gone. So the signal is to keep your hands on the leash and just clock out.

Finally, take a look at the overall situation. Last night the US stocks were very strong: low open and high close. Satellite communications and optical communications both surged. They surged big the day before, and after Asia-Pacific dropped hard yesterday, they still came low open and high close overnight—barely in the red, but they didn’t fall. And Japan/Korea on this side also had small repairs. How come it’s different for the A-shares?
Here, although it’s Qingming Festival, the A-shares still feel slightly disappointing. After the open, with reduced volume, there wasn’t much of a big move; so basically it was like they told everyone to go play early. As a blogger with professional discipline, dedication is first, so I kept watching the market.
After the open, as Jin Yao seconds-boarded, the medicine sector quickly rotated back in. Mid-tier and low-tier kept chasing gains and running up. At this time, power names like Shuangjie and Shuangjie gave up when they both got blasted in the head, and it prompted that you don’t need to watch power later.
Then, when Huiyuan Communication added orders in bidding, it didn’t get smashed at the open. Changfei also opened high. In optical communications, it quickly rotated back. The institutions’ lifts were all “big butts” (large, liquid boards): things like Hengtong Opto-Electronics and Fucing Tech. When they rise, they create pressure on medicine.
So who was the “settling needle” intraday today? It was China Medical (中国医药). This stock carries “China” in its name, which triggers patriotic sentiment. After it hit the limit-up, medicine rotated back again. Later, as Changfei Optical Fiber kept going higher, you found a problem: in optical communications, they only pushed elastic boards and big-butt boards—there was no small-cap first-board atmosphere group. This doesn’t match the hypothetical scenario where Huiyuan Communications is the main rise.
But at that time, Changfei was still very strong. As Changfei pushed for limit-up, China Medical got a board break; the innovative drug sector then pulled back.
After that, Changfei never hit limit-up again. It once closed after forming a pair-top, then pulled back, and in the process it blasted both big-butt and elastic boards.
Then China Medical quickly re-locked the board.
Once you see this loop of mutual “lock/peel” interactions, you’ll find these two sectors are hostile or “hostile-by-proxy” (伴生敌对). In this wave of medicine action, optical communications never weakened; it was stronger than other sectors.
So from the viewpoint of institutional dominance: there were “pump and then smash” moves—one side lifts, one side smashes—but neither side managed to kill the other completely. So watch out later for this hostile-by-proxy: if one side is fully dead, the other side won’t be fine either.

In the afternoon it was pretty boring—rotation like an electric fan: compute power leasing, aerospace, all rotated. Then Changfei had a move that broke below the intraday moving average line. But you find that the limit-ups in the afternoon were still all kinds of AI hardware trend stocks. So the institutions’ holding-group doesn’t seem to have disintegrated yet.
The broad market had a pullback, but it felt weak. It’s probably related to the lack of market volume. In the end, at the close it formed a “body slam” pattern—better to confirm the bottom quickly.
Overall, it’s fast approaching the holiday. There doesn’t seem to be any special layout. Maybe after the holiday, once there’s a full shakeout, new themes will emerge. Currently, the strongest in the market are still holding-group plays: one is institution holding-group, and the other is youzi holding-group.
There are very many stocks hitting the daily limit-down today. According to our indicators, given that number of limit-downs, there’s no need for follow-through. Just wait until after the holiday.

Replay and review of the consecutive limit-up行情

I. Six boards
Jin Yao Pharmaceutical Tianjin Innovative drugs Assisted reproduction Solid share structure—strong, but the highest board before the holiday. Still, the sector really didn’t ferment well. And like Hua Dian Lianeng, it can’t form mid-tier height. The follow-up rally can’t give the leader enough strength.

II. Two-board

1. Jin Yao crossing the node needs Jin Yao to keep raising the bar to improve expectations
2. Chong Yao Holding Chongqing Innovative drugs Weight-loss drugs The share structure is still okay—has a bit of a “mimicking Hua Dian Lianeng” chart pattern vibe
3. Huiyuan Communication Sichuan Fiber Intelligent grid Small float, ordinary share structure. Added orders in the auction—an optical communications “tool-man”
4. Xinneng Taishan Shandong Cable Optical fiber It had been tracking electricity all along; result today it moved into optical fiber. Foshan dominated. Did the youzi start working?

III. First boards

1. Cuiwei Shares Beijing RMB settlement Zhongyou’s biggest auction bid order stimulus made it抢筹 (grab) the one-character board—result: Zhongyou exploded and backstabbed
2. Tongyu Communications Guangdong Optical modules Satellite communications Commercial aerospace US-style satellite comms surged big—but the sector didn’t ferment
3. Wanda Software Shanghai Software development AI intelligent agents Cloud computing Huawei Ordinary share structure
4. Suli Shares Jiangsu Bromine solution price increase Agrochemicals With bonds
5. HSHC (Hua Sheng Chang) Guangdong Power grid equipment Optical communications Snake-like movement
6. Zhizhen Technology Beijing Compute power Commercial aerospace Ordinary share structure, high stock price
7. China Medical Beijing Medicine e-commerce Innovative drugs Good name, stable medicine-sector sentiment
8. Shengquan Shares Shandong Plastic Synthetic resins Sodium-ion batteries Photoresist Commercial aerospace Supercapacitors Tiny share structure
9. Chongqing Luqiao Chongqing Expressways Venture capital—Chongqing promotes Chongqing
10. Rongtai Shares Jiangsu Humanoid robots New energy vehicles Share structure still okay
11. Anke (ZhongAnKe) Hubei Compute power New edition internet security Hubei guidance—“supports Changfei with China Technology Security” implied
12. Shijia Technology Jiangsu CPO Pulling the board while Changfei was diving—firefighting crew
13. Yashi Optoelectronics Liaoning Optical optical-electronic The “three-stock” stock pool
14. YunSai Zhilians Shanghai Compute power Cloud computing Brought a round of compute-power leasing—yet still was just rotating like an electric fan
15. Yuanlin Shares Zhejiang Storage chips Yuanlin Shares “three-stock” stock pool
16. Standard Shares Shanxi Robots Textile Three-stock pool Pulled the board at the close

Key stock commentary

Tongda Shares: Today’s auction was basically standard weak-to-strong. But here, in the morning wrap-up thoughts, it was said that yesterday Jin Yao didn’t let it. That means it was already mid-tier and lost the meaning of follow-through. More importantly, since Jin Yao was seconds-boarded and locked up, Tongda being seconds-boarded as well but then getting quant-validated to cash out: it’s something you could have unfollowed right after it broke and炸板 (broke the board) because it failed to keep Jin Yao locked. But I took another look—found it at the open price and unfollowed.

Huilv Ecology: The chart is purely decent, the location isn’t high, and from the CPO angle the pricing isn’t high. It’s a trend-viewing play; in theory, it’s a swing opportunity.

Thanks again to all brothers who fueled up yesterday @Starchen Jinguang @Wolf King Xing Qianli @Chen Xiaoyue @He Mu @Zigqwer @Niu Niu Niuo @Zhu Mian Da Zhou @Cai Lai77
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Thanks to the number-one supporter big boss @Nanjing Yibu @Cheese Pig Cat, the second boss @Hua Qiang Ai Diao Yu, and the third boss @Meng A Liang @Wan Qian Hong Zhi Feng Dou Shi**
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For the “oil tickets” you don’t need many—seven is enough. Thank you, everyone, for giving the post highlights. This will be the motivation for my continued updates.**