Redemption wave hits $2 trillion in private credit, industry warns of cross-border risk transmission

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American private credit products, which international giants once viewed as a “revenue-boosting tool,” are undergoing an unprecedented stress test. Since 2026, private credit products under leading institutions such as Blackstone, BlackRock, Morgan Stanley, and Oaktree Capital have repeatedly come up against redemption caps. The mismatch between funding-side and asset-side is being brought into sharp focus. Based on the views of multiple industry figures, the pressure on the U.S. private credit market in 2026 mainly comes from two areas. The first major pressure comes from artificial intelligence (AI) disrupting software companies’ business models. The second major pressure is the rise in PIK (pay-in-kind interest or deferred interest) proportions, which has become a threat behind paper gains.

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