CryptoQuant: Bitcoin Derivatives Market Dominated by Shorts, Bulls Continue to Face Liquidation Pressure

ZkProver · 2026-04-03T08:01:33+00:00

CryptoQuant analysts point out that the Bitcoin Position Index continues to decline, reflecting short-term accumulation. Meanwhile, Bitcoin prices have retreated from recent highs, and market structure is weakening. Liquidation indicators show that long positions are experiencing forced liquidations, and risk avoidance remains the current trading strategy. The downside risk is that if holdings remain sluggish, it will intensify the downward pressure on Bitcoin prices.

ZkProver

2026-04-03 08:01:33

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ChainCatcher message. CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. posted that, “The Bitcoin positioning index is a composite indicator for measuring how aggressively the derivatives market is going long/short, reflecting the actual opening directions of participants in the futures market.

This index’s 30-day simple moving average (SMA-30d) reached a local high of +3 on March 17 when Bitcoin was trading at $73,925. Since then, it has continued to decline and has fallen to -3.1. This reflects the ongoing accumulation of short positions. In the same period, Bitcoin’s price dropped from $74,883 to $66,603, and the SMA-30d fell in tandem with the market price, further confirming that the market structure is weakening.

The liquidation oscillation indicator rebounded from 2.9% in mid-March and has continued rising; as of now it has reached 18.6%. This means the market has continued to generate forced liquidations on the long side, not allowing the structure to recover. The red bar series dominated by short liquidations has not appeared since October 2025. As long as the 30-day moving average (30DMA) stays at a high level, and the clearly red bars do not return, pressure on long positions will remain. If the 30DMA reverses downward, it will be the first signal that liquidation balance recovery begins. The reversals of the two indicators occur simultaneously and mutually corroborate.

Bitcoin’s price, after peaking at $74,883, has cumulatively fallen by about 11%. At present, no foundation supporting a sustained reversal has been observed in the derivatives market structure: shorts dominate, longs are continuously being liquidated out, and short-squeeze conditions are scarcely seen. Current stance: avoid risk. The main downside risks are: if liquidation pressure continues and the held-position SMA-30d remains below the zero line, the bearish pattern will further solidify, and the downward pressure for Bitcoin to break below $66,000 will intensify accordingly.”

BTC0.64%

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