Just caught some interesting market moves on Friday. The Treasury yield curve is flattening pretty noticeably, which usually signals something about market expectations shifting. Looking at the 10-year futures contract at 112-22, it's been bouncing between 112-21 and 112-28, but the broader picture is that short-term and long-term rates are converging in ways that make traders nervous.

What caught my eye is how risk assets are getting hit across the board. S&P 500 down 0.2%, Euro Stoxx 50 down 0.1%, and over in Asia it's worse - Nikkei dropped 1.2%, CSI 300 fell 1.3%. There's definitely a shift in risk sentiment happening. The dollar's climbing to 97.03, yen weakening to 153.37, and even gold is only up slightly at $4,942.86 despite the broader market stress.

The flattening risk curve we're seeing tells me the market's thinking rates stabilize near-term but getting real skeptical about longer-term growth. It's that classic risk-off positioning - Treasury traders are busy but cautious, and equities are feeling the pressure. Crude's sitting at $67.77, which is another tell that risk appetite is fading.

Keeping an eye on PCE data going forward. If core PCE comes in hot, we could see the long end of the curve get pushed higher and this flattening might pause. That's the next real catalyst to watch.