Small Mora sounds the alarm: Oil prices may hold above $100 in Q2. If supply disruptions continue until mid-May, prices could break above $150.

Zhitong Finance APP learned that JPMorgan Chase said in a report on Thursday that in the short term, oil prices could surge to $120 to $130 per barrel; if supply flows through the Strait of Hormuz remain disrupted until mid-May, there is a risk of a breakthrough above $150.

JPMorgan Chase’s base-case scenario assumes that after a period of tight supply and falling inventories, the Hormuz Strait disruption will ultimately be resolved through negotiations. Under this scenario, oil prices are expected to stay at a high level above $100 per barrel in the second quarter. The report added that as parts of the strait reopen and oil inventories return to some degree of normalcy, oil prices are expected to fall in the second half of 2026.

JPMorgan Chase warned that the magnitude and duration of any price surge will be key factors determining how severe a more broad macroeconomic shock will be. If high oil prices persist, it will increase the risk of suppressed demand and a potential economic recession.

Earlier this week, energy market consulting firm FGE NexantECA also said that if the near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz due to the Middle East war lasts for six to eight weeks, oil prices could surge to $150 or $200 per barrel. In an interview Tuesday, Fereidun Fesharaki, the firm’s honorary chairman, said: “Every week, 100 million barrels of oil can’t flow through, and every month, 400 million barrels of oil can’t flow through. Therefore, over a period of time, these losses will have an astronomical impact on the market.”

Goldman Sachs said that in the short term, as long as oil transportation through the Strait of Hormuz remains constrained, oil prices could keep rising. Goldman Sachs added that if disruption risks continue to exist, Brent crude’s price could exceed the 2008 peak—Brent crude reached $147.5 per barrel in 2008, setting a record high.

Bank of America is even more pessimistic. The bank’s analysts expect that due to the impact of the Middle East war, even if the conflict ends within a few weeks, the full year will still face slower economic growth, higher inflation, and oil prices of $100 per barrel. The bank’s economists forecast that U.S. economic growth in 2026 will be hit by 50 basis points, falling to 2.3%. Current forecasts show that 2026 headline inflation will reach 3.6%, higher than the previous forecast of 2.8%. Globally, economists have also cut GDP forecasts to 3.1% and raised inflation expectations to 3.3%.

BofA economists wrote: “This is consistent with the characteristics of a stagflation shock. Based on our new base-case assumption that oil prices stay around $100 per barrel for the remainder of 2026, the impact of this shock on inflation will be earlier and more pronounced than its impact on GDP growth.”

Trump’s recent remarks about launching an “extremely severe strike” against Iran in the next two to three weeks have battered market hopes for a quick resolution to the Middle East conflict and pushed oil prices to jump higher on Thursday. Meanwhile, although Trump said in his speech that “the Strait of Hormuz will naturally open” after the war ends, he did not provide details on how that would be achieved. The timeline for when the strait will reopen is precisely the focus of investors right now.

However, there is already news that the Strait of Hormuz may be partially reopened to shipping. Reports say that Iran and Oman are drafting an agreement aimed at implementing “passage regulation” for the transportation of vessels through the Strait of Hormuz, while at the same time emphasizing that it will not restrict vessel passage. The market believes that related progress on Oman’s side brings new hope that the Strait of Hormuz could partially restore navigability without relying on military means.