Just watching the coffee market today and it's pretty interesting how mixed things are getting. Arabica futures are up slightly, but robusta is getting hammered - down over 2% and hitting 4-week lows. The main story here is all that rain in Brazil. Minas Gerais got absolutely soaked last week, something like 70mm when it normally gets around 30mm. That's basically double the average rainfall, so everyone's expecting a bigger harvest coming.

That's putting serious pressure on coffee prices today. You've also got Vietnam pumping out record robusta volumes - their exports jumped 17.5% last year to 1.58 million tons, and they're looking at another 6% increase for the 2025/26 season. When the world's top robusta producer keeps ramping up supply, it's hard for prices to catch a bid.

The inventory situation isn't helping either. ICE arabica stocks bounced back to a 2.5-month high by mid-January, and robusta inventories climbed too. Both were at depressed levels in late 2025, but the buildup is real. Conab also bumped up Brazil's 2025 harvest estimate by 2.4%, now projecting 56.54 million bags instead of 55.20 million.

One thing that's actually supporting coffee prices today though - Brazil's green coffee exports dropped 18.4% in December. That's a real tightening signal, especially for robusta where shipments fell 61%. So you've got this tug-of-war between massive supply expectations and actual export slowdowns. Watching how this plays out over the next few weeks could be key for where coffee prices head next.