After more than a month of fighting, is Iran still using half of its missile launchers? U.S. intelligence contradicts the White House's "victory declaration"

Source: Jin Ten

Three people familiar with the relevant intelligence told CNN, the American cable news network, that although the United States and Israel have carried out daily airstrikes on Iran’s military targets for the past five weeks, according to the latest U.S. intelligence assessment, about half of Iran’s missile launchers remain intact, and there are still thousands of one-way attack drones in its arsenal.

“One thing is for sure: they still have the full capability to sow absolute chaos across the region,” one of the people familiar with the information said about Iran.

The total number in the U.S. intelligence assessment may also include launchers that are currently unreachable—for example, equipment that has been buried under airstrike rubble but not destroyed.

Two people familiar with the information said intelligence shows Iran still has thousands of drones—about 50% of the country’s drone capability. These people said that intelligence compiled in recent days also shows that most of Iran’s coastal-defense cruise missiles remain intact, which is consistent with the fact that the United States has not focused its airstrikes on coastal military assets (even though it has been hitting ships). These missiles are a key capability for Iran’s threat to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

Compared with the broad military victory assessments publicly made by Trump and government officials, this intelligence provides a more detailed picture of Iran’s continued ability to fight.

In a speech to the nation on Wednesday evening local time, Trump said that Iran’s ability to launch missiles and drones has been “significantly weakened,” that “their weapon factories and rocket launchers are being blown into pieces,” and that “what’s left is next to nothing.”

According to data from U.S. Central Command, as of Wednesday, the United States has struck more than 12,300 targets inside Iran. People familiar with the information said that intelligence shows the U.S. has degraded Iran’s military capabilities, and that key senior leaders—including Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and the chairman of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, Ali Larijani—have been killed in U.S. and Israeli strikes.

According to this intelligence, in addition to missile launchers, Iran also retains a large number of missiles.

In public comments, the Pentagon has emphasized the reduction in the total number of missiles fired by Iran, rather than the number destroyed. Defense Secretary Hegseth said at a March 19 press conference, “Ballistic missile attacks targeting our forces have declined by 90% since the conflict began, and one-way attack drones (so-called suicide drones) have also declined by 90%.”

In response to questions about this article, White House spokesperson Anna Kelly said, “Anonymous sources are urgently trying to attack President Trump and belittle the incredible work our U.S. military has done in achieving the goals of ‘Operation Epic Rage.’”

“The facts are as follows: ballistic missile and drone attacks from Iran have declined by 90%, their navy has been wiped out, two-thirds of production facilities have been destroyed or damaged, and the U.S. and Israel have overwhelming air superiority over Iran,” she said. “This terror regime is being militarily dismantled, and their miserable situation is growing dimmer by the day—their only hope is to reach an agreement with the Trump administration to abandon their nuclear ambitions forever. Otherwise, they will face an even heavier blow than ever before.”

A government official added that Iran’s ballistic missiles are being rapidly destroyed.

Israel, Gulf states, and U.S. military personnel continue to face Iran’s regular missile and drone attacks.

Pentagon spokesperson Sean Parnell disagreed with CNN’s report, saying it was “completely wrong.”

“The U.S. military has launched a series of devastating strikes against the Iranian regime,” Parnell said. “We are far ahead of schedule in achieving military objectives: destroying Iran’s missile arsenal, eliminating its navy, destroying its terrorism proxies, and ensuring Iran can never obtain nuclear weapons.”

A person familiar with the U.S. intelligence assessment and an Israeli source said that Israeli military officials estimated the number of launchers Iran can operate at a lower figure, underestimating by about 20% to 25%. When calculating surviving launchers, Israel does not include those launchers that have been buried or are hidden in caves and tunnels that cannot be reached.

On Wednesday, Trump set the timeline for completing U.S. military operations at two to three weeks. The first person to review the U.S. intelligence assessment said that, given that Iran still has so much power to draw on, such targets are unrealistic.

“We can keep hitting them hard—I have no doubt about that—but if you think that can be done in two weeks, then you’ve got to be crazy,” the source said.

This week, Hegseth said at a press conference that Iran’s firepower is continuing to weaken.

“Yes, they will still fire some missiles, but we will shoot them down,” he said. “It’s worth noting that the past 24 hours was the day with the fewest enemy missiles and drones launched by Iran. They will go underground, but we will find them.”

Two people familiar with the recent assessment told CNN that Iran’s ability to go underground is the main reason its launchers have not been further degraded. For years, Iran has kept its launchers hidden within a vast network of tunnels and caves—prepared for conflicts like this for decades—which makes them particularly difficult to locate. Two people familiar with the information said that Iran has been successful at launching and relocating mobile platforms, making tracking the launchers difficult—similar to the challenges faced by the United States in Yemen with one of Iran’s key proxies, the Houthis.

Annika Ganzeveld, Middle East affairs manager at the Critical Threats Project of the American Enterprise Institute, said that the U.S. and Israel are increasingly targeting the tunnel entrances of these underground facilities and the equipment used to try to re-enter them, such as bulldozers and other heavy equipment.

As this latest intelligence assessment comes out, the United States is still working to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and privately admits it cannot guarantee reopening this vital waterway before the war ends. The first person familiar with the information said that the coastal-defense cruise missile capability may essentially remain intact because it is not the focus of U.S. actions—rather, the U.S. has concentrated its firepower on targets that can be used to strike the region’s allies. But these capabilities may also have fallen back underground, making them hard to detect.

The first person familiar with the information said that although Iran’s navy has been largely destroyed, the independent naval forces affiliated with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps still retain about half of their capabilities. The second person familiar with the information said that the IRGC still has “hundreds, even thousands of small boats and water-surface unmanned vessels.”

As of Wednesday, in a public statement, the Central Command said that more than 155 Iranian ships have been destroyed or damaged. Ganzeveld said, however, it is currently unclear which navy the U.S. is referring to when it claims to have destroyed Iranian ships.

She said the IRGC navy is essentially the force responsible for harassing shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

“Of course some things are still there—proxy forces and drones. Iran has shown in the past few days that it still has the ability to target shipping in the strait,” Ganzeveld said. “So if we want to completely destroy these capabilities, there certainly will be some targets that need to be hit.”

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Editor: Lingchen