Please wait patiently for $BTC and the bottom of the US stock market

From the perspective of the “large cycle,” this round of market decline is actually not unexpected, and it is not the first time it has happened. As early as last December, I had been continuously warning about the risk of a pullback in the US stock market; on the crypto side, starting from September and October last year, the overall assessment has also been on the bearish side.

Now the market attributes the cause to geopolitical conflicts, but in my view, this is more of a fuse than a fundamental reason. What truly drives this round of adjustment is a combination of several factors: technical analysis has already issued warnings long ago, the market has entered a mid-term election cycle, and against the backdrop of inflation picking up, global central banks are under pressure to shift back to a more hawkish stance. And the rise in oil prices is actually amplifying all of this.

Based on historical data, during mid-term election years the S&P 500’s average pullback is roughly around 15%. But what makes this cycle relatively special is that it adds the variable of oil prices rising. Looking back at history, in several of the more significant oil crises, the S&P 500’s average decline is close to 30%. So, for this cycle, if the drawdown falls between 15% and 30%, it’s actually within a reasonable range.

Even if the market ends up falling deeper than what people currently expect, it’s not a black swan—rather, it’s more like creating opportunities for long-term capital.

My strategy is also fairly simple: I won’t wait for a “perfect bottom,” but will confirm the bottom zone based on some key trigger signals as I go, and gradually build long-term positions in batches throughout this year.

BTC currently does not really support the idea that it has already bottomed out. Whether it’s the macro structure, technical indicators, or the overall risk environment, none have yet provided a clear signal.

From a cycle perspective, this current bear market has gone on for about 6 months, while in previous cycles it was basically over 10 months; in terms of drawdown magnitude, historically BTC bear markets fall by at least 70% from the high, and this time so far it’s roughly around 53%.

Each round of retracement narrows, but at this point, it’s hard to say that it has already finished.

So my view is: starting from a 60% retracement, you can actually enter the long-term allocation zone, but for the truly big-level bottom, I still plan to wait for long-term signals to confirm.

My current dollar-cost averaging range is still the same—roughly between 40,000 and 50,000. Take it slow; no rush.