There's a new ETF for memory stocks. History suggests that might be an ominous sign.

By Britney Nguyen

 'If history is a guide, this is precisely the time you want to be selling memory-exposed names,' a market technician says 

 Shares of memory and storage makers such as Micron have soared thanks to to AI demand. 

 Memory stocks have been so hot in recent months that there's now a new exchange-traded fund devoted to trading the theme. But the development has one market veteran sounding a warning. 

 Roundhill Investments launched the Roundhill Memory ETF DRAM on Thursday, offering exposure to a basket of companies that manufacture memory and storage products. The ETF, which trades under the ticker symbol "DRAM," holds just nine globally traded stocks, including Samsung Electronics (KR:005930), SK Hynix (KR:000660) and Micron Technology (MU) - the world's top three producers of high-bandwidth memory. 

 See more: Micron's stock bounces higher. Is the memory trade back on? 

 To BTIG chief market technician Jonathan Krinsky, the newly launched ETF could be a sign that the memory cycle is reaching a peak. 

 In the past year, the Goldman Sachs TMT Memory Exposed Index has risen 350%, Krinsky noted, and was up more than 400% at its peak in February. That the Memory ETF has only been made available now is "a contrarian sell signal," he said in a Thursday note. 

 "If history is a guide, this is precisely the time you want to be selling memory-exposed names," Krinsky said. 

 There are technical reasons behind Krinsky's belief that the memory trade is near a top. But he said he's also looking to four prior ETF launches that were focused on hot themes and then "acted as contrary indicators in an extremely precise manner." 

 Krinsky pointed to the Roundhill Meme Stock ETF MEME, which was launched in December 2021 and tracked UBS's meme-stock index. The ETF fell more than 70% at its lowest point, before closing in November 2023. It was launched again in October 2025 after the index rallied about 100% off April 2025 lows, he noted - but since then, the index has declined about 40%. 

 Another tell may come from the VanEck Vectors Coal ETF, which was launched in January 2008 and used the Dow Jones Coal Index as a proxy. Krinsky observed that the ETF lost most of its value before closing in December 2020, while the Dow Jones Coal Index has seen a massive surge since the ETF's closure. 

 Spot bitcoin prices (BTCUSD), meanwhile, suffered a drawdown of more than 77% following the launch of the Bitcoin Futures ETF in October 2021, Krinsky said. And on the retail front, the Brick & Mortar Index climbed about 50% over a nine-month period after the launch of the ProShares Decline of Retail Store ETF EMTY in November 2017. 

 Read on: Tech stocks essentially haven't been this cheap versus the S&P 500 in six years 

 Roundhill Investments co-founder Will Hershey told MarketWatch that skeptics warned about the firm's Magnificent Seven ETF MAGS, which was launched in April 2023 to track the leading technology companies. 

 "Look at where the [Magnificent Seven] are trading three years later," Hershey said in emailed comments. Since its launch, that ETF is up 145% - outperforming the S&P 500 SPX, which has risen 67% over the same span, according to Dow Jones Market Data. 

 Memory stocks "have a massive secular tailwind at their backs from continued hyperscaler [capital expenditures] and investment in AI," Hershey said, and the new memory ETF "was launched to capture that share of the AI buildout." 

 Meanwhile, Krinsky thinks the DRAM ETF is an indicator that the memory market is "in the final innings of this parabolic advance." 

 Micron's stock looks "historically stretched," he noted, as it has recently traded more than 150% above its 200-day moving average. That's "the widest spread in history exceeding anything during the tech bubble," Krinsky said. If Micron's stock declines back toward the 200-day moving average, it would be "a normal pullback," he added, though that would also look like a 30% drop from where it's currently trading. 

 Micron's stock is up 28% so far this year and 392% over the past year. 

 -Britney Nguyen 

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04-04-26 0800ET

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