I increasingly feel that predicting the market is more worth studying than a bunch of copycats. Many times, copycats are not competing on understanding but on who can run faster and who can take the final baton. Prediction markets at least have odds to look at; you can calculate expected differences, find information gaps, and withdraw early. To put it simply, I am losing interest in "storytelling to manipulate the market," and I am becoming more interested in "pricing opinions with real money."