4.5 Review and Breakdown: Teach you how to review and plan your contingency strategies

I haven’t done much recently—first because there aren’t any truly certain setups, and second because a few senior figures asked me to do it. Most of my energy has gone into relay-style work: looking at how to turn from this kind of “technique” for high-impact bursts into following up on how to break that “technique” to get closer to the “Way”—the level of quantitative return curves. With different capital sizes and different restrictions, the corresponding playstyles are also different.
Since I promised everyone we’d chat on the weekend, I’ll set aside some time to explain how to review plans!

Many people can understand the review, but the next day they won’t use it.

So today I won’t talk about concepts. I’ll directly take the real market from this week, from 3.30 to 4.3, and break it down for you step by step—especially on Friday (4.3)—and show you why a review can directly determine whether you’ll make money on next Tuesday (4.7).

Let me put it plainly:

If you lose money this week, it’s not because you can’t read the market—it’s because you didn’t follow the review.

I. First, the single most core thing: what is the review actually for

Many people treat a review like a summary—that’s wrong.

The real purpose of a review has only one thing:

Help you remove every kind of operation you shouldn’t do in advance.

If you lost money this week, you basically lost in three things:

Buying the breakout after it spikes, relay trading, bottom-fishing

And over the past few days, every day in my reviews I’ve been reminding you—don’t do these.

II. Starting from 3.30, I’ll benchmark it for you

On 3.30, what I gave was a qualitative judgment:

The “electric tiger” falls; the new king raises brood. Many people will hear it as just talk about sentiment, but it’s actually an operational signal.

Translated:

The old cycle (power) ends.

The new cycle hasn’t emerged yet.

In this environment, you can only do one thing:

Experiment is allowed, but going heavy is not.

How did the aftermath play out over the following days?

3.31 MeiNuohua breaks down → the clearing-out at the highs begins

4.1 Open higher then decline → chasing after the spike is all a trap

4.2 Pullback on shrinking volume → nobody is willing to take over

4.3 Four thousand households lying flat → a sentiment freeze point

That’s the full benchmark.

So the first thing you need to learn isn’t finding “bull” stocks. It’s to first judge:

Is there a “heavy-position environment” right now?

If you get this step wrong, everything after it will be wrong.

III. Focus on the opening auction: where exactly did you go wrong

What fans care about the most is the opening auction. So I’ll take the most representative example and explain it directly.

First, look at 3.31:

MeiNuohua misses expectations

Tianshan Aluminum weakens

Minfa Aluminum takes the lead

Most people only see “rotation.”

But you should break it down like this:

MeiNuohua = grouped high leaders (high-position holding) → when it fails = the old cycle ends

Tianshan Aluminum weakens = the new theme doesn’t get picked up

Minfa Aluminum takes the lead = capital is testing

Put those three together and you get:

The market is rotating, but it didn’t rotate successfully.

So what’s the best solution on that day?

It’s not to chase Minfa Aluminum—it’s to lower expectations, even to not act.

Next, look at 4.1—this is the key day when most people lose money.

Opening auction:

Guangliangzi has the largest order size

Jin Yao Pharmaceutical is a one-word limit-up

China Railways is a one-word limit-up

Many people see that two lines are strong and just jump in.

But in my review I already gave the conclusion:

The pharma name is for hedging/defense

High-speed rail is for continuation of sentiment

As everyone knows, the result:

China Railways didn’t just fail after the open—it blew up shortly after opening and kept getting crushed all the way to zero

Jianjian Shares directly cut off and hit its limit-down

This move specifically slices the people who don’t use a review properly.

The problem isn’t that you can’t tell strength and weakness. It’s that you didn’t distinguish:

Who is setting the direction, and who is just following along.

Guangliangzi is the biggest order—it indicates direction.

China Railways is only following.

If you do what a follower does, you’re fundamentally just taking the last baton in a relay.

Next, look at 4.2:

Jin Yao Pharmaceutical continues with a one-word limit-up

Chongyao Holding has the second-largest order

Tech opening-auction “surrenders”

My given qualitative judgment is very clear:

Pharma is a one-alone powerhouse, but it’s only for hedging—not for the main advance phase.

What does that mean?

You can buy for low-level arbitrage, but you can’t go on to relay from the high.

Why?

Because the market has already given you signals:

The back rows can’t rise

Quant repeatedly gets sold down

No spread/diffusion

In this kind of market, the more you chase, the faster you die.

IV. Here comes the key point: why this review on 4.3 is critical

Many people think there wasn’t much going on on Friday. But I’ll tell you:

Friday’s information volume is the largest of the entire week.

On 4.3, something happened:

It smashed every last “fantasy of still being able to fight.”

Look at a few of the core signals yourself:

Biomed has surviving positions, but no diffusion

Power is only rotation, not the main line

Tech trends and doesn’t provide limit-up blocks

The index shrinks volume—waiting for the second leg

When you put these together, it’s essentially one sentence:

The market has no conditions to launch an attack.

So what’s the significance of that conclusion?

It directly decides how you should do things on 4.7.

V. Turn the review into action: how to use it on 4.7

A lot of you think that on Monday you open the screen and want to start doing things—that’s the problem.

First ask yourself one question:

Is there a new cycle now?

If the answer is no, what should you do?

One word:

Wait.

If on Monday you see:

Expanding volume

New-theme resonance

A core stock that’s beyond expectations

Then that’s the signal that you can move.

Otherwise, when you go try limit-ups and relay right now, you’re basically repeating the mistake of 4.1.

VI. Wrap-up: the five-step method for reviews (just follow it)

From now on, review every day—don’t make it so complicated. Just do these five steps:

First step: define the cycle (are we attacking or defending right now?)

Second step: read the opening auction (who is pointing the direction?)

Third step:抓核心 (track the emotional anchor points)

Fourth step: do scenario projection (how many possible ways tomorrow can go)

Fifth step: set the strategy (only execute—don’t fantasize)

If you write these five steps every day, after a week you’ll clearly feel:

You won’t be firing randomly anymore.

———

Finally, let me tell the truth plainly:

If you lose money this week, it’s not that the market is hard—it’s that you didn’t follow the review.

On 3.30 I warned about the pullback phase

On 3.31 I warned about the switch failing

On 4.1 I warned that you can’t chase after a strong open then weak close

On 4.2 I warned about rotation on shrinking volume

On 4.3 I directly told you there’s no attacking condition

The answer is actually there every day.

Before Tuesday’s open, read that 4.3 review again.

You’ll find the market has already written the script.