Media: Iran launches asymmetric warfare from a disadvantaged position, continuing to deal heavy blows to the US and its allies

Media reports say Iran shot down two U.S. military aircraft. This incident is the strongest proof that, despite suffering severe military losses, Tehran can significantly raise the cost for the United States and Israel to continue this conflict.

The downing operation is Iran’s most successful demonstration of its military strategy. Iran’s aim is to carry out tactical strikes against the United States and its allies. Its goal is not to win militarily, but to ensure its own survival and wear down the will of the other side to keep fighting.

These F-15E fighters and A-10 attack aircraft are the first aircraft shot down since the U.S. and Israel have carried out thousands of sorties in Iranian airspace. The U.S. launched a large-scale search-and-rescue operation and recovered one crew member, but at least one other remains missing.

Insiders say the A-10 was not shot down within Iran. Before the pilot of this twin-engine, single-seat attack aircraft was rescued via ejection, he had already flown the aircraft out of Iranian airspace.

The current question is to what extent these strikes—when Trump already leaned toward ending the war as soon as possible—could shake his determination to continue, and even expand, the war.

Allen Ayer, a former Iran specialist at the U.S. State Department and a researcher at the Middle East Institute, said: “This clearly shows that Iran can ‘win without prevailing.’ The United States has always claimed that ‘everything is under control,’ and this time it directly punctured that narrative.”

Iran did not seek a direct confrontation with the U.S. and Israel. Instead, it adopted an asymmetric warfare strategy: striking Arab Gulf countries, destroying key air-defense radars and facilities, and blocking most tankers from transiting through the Strait of Hormuz. This set of tactics was carried out by Iran’s elite military force leading the operations—the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). Previously, the organization had supplied proxy militias with simple explosive devices, which led to the deaths of thousands of U.S. service members in Iraq.

The U.S.-Israel air operations severely damaged Iran’s missile bases and mobile launchers. But Tehran can still fire dozens of missiles and drones every day, prolonging the conflict, raising the economic cost for oil-producing states in the Gulf and for the United States, and buying itself more room to endure.

And before Friday, Iran had still not managed to shoot down U.S.-Israel aircraft in its own airspace. Iran’s state television announced that Iranian civilians who find U.S. crew members and turn them over alive will receive rewards.

Even as the U.S. search-and-rescue continued and the missing crew member’s whereabouts remained unknown, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the speaker of Iran’s parliament, posted mocking remarks on social media, saying that the United States’ war aims had been dealt a blow.

“Back when they launched this so-called ‘ingenious, no-plan’ war, it has now degenerated from ‘regime change’ into ‘Hey! Have you found our pilots?’” he wrote. “Wow, what brilliant progress—truly top-notch genius.”

On the very day of this successful strike, Iranian officials told the mediators that they were unwilling to meet with the U.S. side in Islamabad in the coming days, and that the White House’s series of harsh demands proposed to end the war could not be accepted.

William Wexler, director of the Middle East program at the Atlantic Council and a former official at the U.S. Department of Defense, said that this incident shows “we may have gained air superiority, but we have not achieved absolute air supremacy.”

“The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps is a professional military force with mature learning and adaptation capabilities, and it clearly still has the operational ability to threaten U.S. pilots and other personnel,” Wexler said.

He added that even if the U.S. military has overwhelming advantages, the war could still spiral out of control quickly. “This war will continue for some time, and the likelihood of further escalation is increasing, whether deliberately or triggered by accident. No one should have illusions—there are many ways for this war to escalate sharply in a short time.”

This loss of aircraft occurred after the U.S.-Israel coalition carried out 13,000 sorties and conducted five weeks of airstrikes. Former Air Force officers said that it was only at this point that such aircraft losses appeared—precisely reflecting that early in the war, the U.S. successfully suppressed Iran’s air-defense system.

Dave Deptula, commander of air operations in the Gulf War from 1990 to 1991 and a retired Air Force lieutenant general, said: “What is most surprising about this is that it only happened now. Thousands of aircraft penetrated the contested airspace and struck thousands of targets—and it took an entire month for the first operational loss to appear? That, in itself, is highly unusual.”

White House press secretary Caroline Leavitt said Trump had received a briefing on the situation of the aircraft being shot down. In recent days, he had threatened to “bomb Iran back to the Stone Age.” Within the past 24 hours, both the U.S. and Iran have continued striking military and civilian facilities within the region.

There is no question that the U.S.-Israel coalition holds the upper hand in a direct confrontation. The U.S.-Israel side claims it has destroyed Iran’s air force and sunk most of its naval vessels, weakening its air defenses and missile-launching capability. Multiple senior Iranian leaders have moved underground, and U.S. officials say its command-and-control systems have been paralyzed.

Trump has ordered thousands of Marines and 82nd Airborne Division soldiers to deploy to the Middle East. Although the president has not yet indicated a plan to launch a ground offensive against Iranian islands in the Persian Gulf, this deployment preserves related options for him, and it has also prompted Iran’s preparations for war and a new round of threats.

Ayer said: “Once large numbers of Americans are captured by Iran, or large numbers of U.S. troops are killed due to Iran’s attacks, that will change his judgment on whether to continue the war.”

Iran has previously carried out multiple strikes against U.S. forces, including last week’s missile and drone attacks on the air force base of Saudi’s Crown Prince Sultan. Iran dealt a severe blow to or destroyed several U.S. aircraft, including multiple E-3 “Sentry” airborne warning and control aircraft and aerial refueling aircraft. About 12 soldiers were injured, including two whose conditions are critical.

Iran also attacked luxury hotels in multiple countries, radar stations, energy facilities, key ports, and several U.S. embassies throughout the region, and even an Amazon data center. Analysts point out that although these attacks did not cause fatal military blows, they show that after five weeks of war, Iran still has the ability to pose threats and has not conceded defeat.

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Editor: Liu Mingliang