Next Week (April 6-12): Key Federal Reserve Developments

April 10 (Thursday): Release of US March CPI inflation data.
If inflation exceeds expectations, the rate cut expectations will further diminish; if below expectations, a short-term rebound may occur.
CME data shows a 99.5% probability of maintaining interest rates in April, and only a 6.0% chance of a 25BP rate cut by June.
Powell has explicitly stated that the current policy is "suitable for watching," and shrinking rate cut expectations are the main factor suppressing risk assets.
April Overall Market Analysis
The market in April faces three major pressures:
1. Macro liquidity tightening, diminishing rate cut expectations;
2. Large-scale unlocks of altcoins (HYPE, ZRO, SUI, totaling over $540 million), creating selling pressure that cannot be ignored;
3. Geopolitical tensions (Middle East situation) causing repeated disturbances.
On the positive side:
In March, ETF net inflows of $1.32 billion ended previous continuous outflows, with whales continuously accumulating below $66,000 to form a support base.
It is expected that April will mainly see wide-range fluctuations with a bottom-up trend, and a clear direction will only emerge after the FOMC meeting at the end of the month.
Trading Strategy
Core approach for next week: Focus on defense, light positions for trading
1. Spot holders: If BTC retraces near $66,000, consider adding small positions; cut losses if below $65,000. If ETH stays above $2,000, continue holding core positions.
2. Contract traders: Currently, low volatility makes heavy trend trading unsuitable; keep positions within 2-3x leverage before CPI release.
3. Key focus: The two hours before and after the April 10 CPI release will see the largest volatility, so trade accordingly based on data direction.
Reminder:
Before the CPI data release on Friday (April 10) evening, reduce leverage and avoid heavy bets on direction.
The current fear index is in the "Extreme Fear" zone; extreme pessimism often signals a contrarian buy, but patience is needed for catalysts. #Gate广场四月发帖挑战