Analysis: Average Cost of BTC Losses at $93,600, Many High-Position Investors Have Cut Losses

On April 5, on-chain analyst Murphy stated that the average cost of all loss-making Bitcoin positions has fallen below $100,000, currently sitting at $93,600. This indicates that under the current chip structure, BTC will reach the market’s average break-even point when it rises back to $93,000. During the two rapid declines at the end of last year and the beginning of this year, a large number of high-positioned investors chose to cut their losses, which lowered the average cost of overall floating losses, a phenomenon commonly referred to as ‘washing out’. It was also observed that the average cost of loss-making chips has a deviation coefficient of 1.4 compared to the current 30-day average price of BTC. In the past three bear market bottoms, the deviation coefficients have all exceeded 2.0 (as shown in the blue waveform below). When the average deviation coefficient is greater than or equal to 2.0, it indicates that the market has entered an absolute bottom range, while at this moment, BTC’s price is less than 50% of the average cost of loss-making chips. To meet this condition, the lowest point of BTC in this cycle would need to drop to $46,800. However, historical patterns do not always hold true, and the current bear market may be less painful than any previous bear market. According to monitoring by PolyBeats, in the Polymarket related market of ‘Will Bitcoin reach $60,000 or $80,000 first?’, the probability of reaching $60,000 first is 68%, while the probability of reaching $80,000 first is 32%.