Gold prices are about to repeat history! Be prepared—gold prices might revisit the 2015 levels at the beginning of the month.

After the gold price experienced a decline in March, many people believe the bull market is over, and some are even worried: will the gold price next get cut in half?

Can gold once again break through this year’s January high and deliver a historic market move?

In fact, there’s unlikely to be a big drop in the gold price—instead, it will very likely see a new bull market in the future. The reasons are as follows:

1️⃣ The U.S. Department of the Treasury launches the largest debt buyback in history

According to the latest data released by the U.S. Department of the Treasury: on April 1, the U.S. Treasury repurchased $15 billion in U.S. Treasuries, which is the largest Treasury buyback in U.S. history.

This is a routine way the U.S. Treasury urgently injects liquidity into financial markets. Large-scale buybacks mean market liquidity is directly replenished, providing support for safe-haven assets like gold.

2️⃣ The Fed may restart quantitative easing under high interest rates

To ease panic in financial markets caused by a liquidity crunch, Fed Chair candidate Rogan said: for a long time to come, the Federal Reserve will keep the dollar interest rate unchanged, and will not raise rates to curb inflation triggered by oil prices.

At the same time, the Fed has long ended balance-sheet runoff. If liquidity becomes even more strained, the Fed may restart quantitative easing while keeping high interest rates.

📌 The previous round of balance-sheet expansion took place in 2020; the balance sheet grew from $4.47 trillion to a final $8.97 trillion, more than doubling. It was this round of expansion that pushed the gold price from around $1,800 up to $5,600.

Although the Fed has been running down its balance sheet for these two years, the scale still remains at $6.4 trillion, and the reduction has not been substantial. Now that there’s also a plan to restart balance-sheet expansion, it will be very difficult for the gold price to fall.

3️⃣ War escalates U.S. debt, and global de-dollarization accelerates

War will increase U.S. debt. To sustain the war, Trump has once again applied to the U.S. Congress for a new budget. It is expected that next year, U.S. military spending will reach $1.5 trillion, with a growth rate as high as 50%.

The prolonged war will also accelerate de-dollarization at central banks around the world. From a long-term perspective, whether it’s the dollar or Treasuries, they will continue to depreciate relative to gold.

• The Russia-Ukraine war is the beginning of global de-dollarization

• The U.S.-Iran war will accelerate de-dollarization

Meanwhile, central banks worldwide will continue to increase their gold holdings. Therefore, it’s very difficult for the gold price to fall sharply.

📌 Additional observation: Turkey sells off, mysterious buyer steps in

Although over the past one or two months, the Turkish central bank, in order to maintain stability of its local currency, has been selling off gold reserves and, to a certain extent, has weighed on the gold price, based on who is absorbing it, Turkey’s gold has been bought up by mysterious buyers.

Once liquidity eases, Turkey will most likely increase its gold reserves again.

✅ Conclusion

In short, it’s still very difficult for the gold price to experience an extreme bear-market market move. Instead, each time the gold price falls, it’s a good opportunity for many countries’ central banks to step in.

For ordinary investors, perhaps what’s needed is more psychological preparation: the gold price won’t easily turn back, and history may be repeating itself.

Author statement: personal opinion, for reference only