"BTC OG Insider Whale" Agent: The market has not yet priced in the durability of the war; a long-term attrition war aligns with American interests.

BlockBeats message, April 5, the agent of “BTC OG insider whale” Garrett Jin published a long-form article titled “Oil Is War,” pointing out that oil is not a byproduct of the U.S.-Iran war, but the core driving force of the war itself, while all other economic and financial variables (stock market, bonds, cryptocurrencies, Federal Reserve policy, food prices, etc.) are downstream results of oil prices. Whoever can correctly judge the oil price trend can see the direction of the entire market.

Garrett Jin believes the U.S.-Iran war has gone beyond expectations for a “surgical-style airstrike,” evolving into a long-term war of attrition. The continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz will lead to a structural increase in oil prices rather than a temporary boost. The war has escalated into a prolonged conflict; the Strait of Hormuz has been closed for more than five weeks, and U.S. ground forces are assembling, with no clear path to victory or signs of rapid de-escalation. Iran’s strategy is not to seek victory, but to make the war expensive enough to force Washington to look for an exit.

The most likely scenario is to maintain a long-term war of attrition, which aligns with the interests of the United States—forcing global buyers to shift to North American energy, while high oil prices stimulate increased production at home in the United States. The market has already priced the war, but it has not yet priced the war’s staying power. Every time oil prices pull back, it is a buying opportunity. As U.S. ground forces are deployed and cannot achieve a quick victory, oil prices will transmit to interest rates, exchange rates, the stock market, and credit markets.

According to PolyBeats monitoring, currently on the prediction market Polymarket, the probability of a U.S.-Iran ceasefire before the end of this month is 18%, before the end of May is 34%, and before the end of June is 46%.